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Mango and Lime Crop Update and Forecast - Week 10

Lime Update

The lime market price has risen to irrationally high numbers over the past few days. The excess volumes left over from the 700+ truckload volume week are gone and the growers simply jumped the field prices from around 11 pesos mid last week to almost 30 pesos over the weekend. They take it to the extreme when they feel a little strength or tightness in the market. We feel this is an artificially high market that will not hold. We do not believe there is a real shortage of crop on the trees. There is conflicting information on this depending on who is giving it to you. We expect the cycle to continue with growers holding back to raise the market then dumping more product in when they can’t hold back any longer. We expect large short term fluctuations in the daily market in both directions during March. When possible it is, it is good to lock in reasonable pricing a week in advance. Quality is excellent. Please run promo and spot opportunities by us. There are 1,410 stores on ad on limes for the week ending 3/7 at an average retail price of $0.42 per unit and 81 stores on ad at an average of $0.87 per pound. There were 19 stores on organic lime ads at an average retail of $0.33 per unit.

Mango Crop Update

We are in week 10 now. This week and next should be the lowest availability weeks of the year on “round” mangos by my projections below in the Arrival Volume Chart. This is no surprise. We have been talking about this shortage for weeks and it is now here. Everyone should just concentrate on building Honey mango (Ataulfo) business and plan to promote round mangos again in April. Most major importers have little to offer in the spot market due to contract commitments. The very high spot market prices ($8.50 to $9.50 FOB NJ, $7.50 - $8.50 FOB TX) are a more result of lack of availability due to contracts than some kind of abnormal demand. Peru fruit actually available in the spot market is mostly size 6 and 7. Quality (appearance), condition, and flavor has been excellent. Mexican fruit actually available to purchase is almost exclusively 12s and 14s in rounds. Condition is strong. Mexican Tommy/Haden quality is fair and taste is all over the place depending on stage of ripeness on picking. Ataulfos are in decent supply and decent quality and taste. Not a great year so far but improving each week.

Michoacán continues to delay on Tommies and Hadens. Be very wary of Michoacán round fruit until the end of March. Most of it is not ready to pick but a few growers are picking and packing fruit that cuts white and will never ripen properly. They do this because some importers are willing to accept the fruit this way just to have something to offer even though it does more harm than good in the end when the fruit tastes bad. Oaxaca is building volume slowly every week on rounds. Our projections in the Arrival Volume Chart continue to be a 5 year historical average. It was a little lower last week but on track so far for the projection of this week.

Stores on ad on conventional mangos increased from 4,329 stores to 4,816 stores on ad for the week ending 3/7. Weighted average retail price is $0.90 per piece. This drop in average retail is due to the ads on Honey Mangoes with smaller sizing. The USDA unfortunately does not separate round and yellow mangoes in the retail ad data. See the USDA Data on Retail Mango Ads chart below for detailed data by geographic region of the country. Stores on ad on organic mangoes decreased from 282 stores to 184 stores at an average price of $1.61 per piece.

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