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Mango and Lime Crop Update and Forecast - Week 18

Lime Update

The lime market has fallen drastically on small sizes and large sizes just are not very available. Overall volume has surged from around the 500 load per week level to the 700 load level over the last 7 days reported. Often when lime volumes surge, the crossings data seems to come over delayed and then get revised upward a day or two later. That is why we are only reporting through Tuesday of this week. There has been no rain for many weeks in Veracruz and this is why the sizing is so small. Color is deep green and the skin is thick giving good shelf life, but juice content is low due to the lack of rain. The opportunity for retailers the coming month is in the smallest sizes which will have drastically lower prices such as 230s/250s/275s. If those sizes are just not going to work I would suggest using a 17/2 Lb. bag lime to push sales. Of course it will have the smaller limes in it but with a bag it doesn’t really matter. Please run ad opportunities by us. We have excellent supplies and quality on organic limes as well. We are looking for programs on organic limes.

The number of stores on ad on limes rose from 672 last week to 1,324 stores for the week ending 5/2 at an average retail price of $0.35 per unit. There were zero stores on organic lime ads.

Mango Crop Update

We are ending week 18 today. Mexican mango volume surged this week and we have finally hit the first 500,000 box days of packing We expect to be in the 3- 4 million box per week range now to stay for the next 3 months. Peak season is here. The time is right to promote both Round and Yellow mangos. Prices have fallen significantly across the board and there are very sharp promotional prices available on 10s/12s/14s in round mangos and reasonable prices on Honey mangos as well. See the Arrival Volume Chart below which shows the projected arrival volume split between round and yellow varieties. We will be at consistently high volumes of each for the foreseeable future. Organic round mangos are in great supply as well.

Guatemala is winding down as Mexico enters the high season with 7 states producing at the same time. Oaxaca has seen 2 consecutive days of rain which may speed the end of that season. With Oaxaca going out the only place to get a good amount of large sizes will be in Michoacán where the Kents should start picking next week. We expect pricing to be at a premium for large Kents versus Tommy and Haden. Chiapas is still going strong on Honey mangos since it has not rained yet but starting week 20 the volumes will come down regardless. Nayarit, which is a strong Honey (Ataulfo) and Tommy region is just starting and will ramp up volume quickly. The Nayarit Ataulfos are reported to be generally large in size while the Tommys are expected to peak on 10s then 12s. Sinaloa should start picking strong on Kents about week 23/24. Current week packing is running 28% Ataulfo (Honey), 64% Tommy Atkins, 8% Haden.

Please see the pics of our Haitian Madame Francis mangos below. We are carrying these in New Jersey and are looking for retailers to open the code to carry this amazing tasting mango with its own PLU code (PLU 3621)

Mangos were the 4th most promoted fruit nationwide this past week. Stores on ad on conventional mangos increased from 4,013 stores to 10,929 stores on ad for the week ending 5/2. Weighted average retail price is $0.99 per piece. This average retail price is a mix of Round and Honey Mangoes which tend to have smaller sizing. The USDA unfortunately does not separate round and yellow mangoes in the retail ad data. See the USDA Data on Retail Mango Ads chart below for detailed data by geographic region of the country. Stores on ad on organic mangoes increased from 752 stores to 792 stores at an average price of $1.72 per piece.

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