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Mango and Lime Crop Update and Forecast - Week 21

Lime update

The weather in Mexico is hot and dry. High volumes of limes are crossing through both Nogales and Texas, with the majority coming in through South Texas. Sizing is running heavy on 200/230s. Europe is still pulling from Mexico at a good pace. Mexican packers are fighting the price decline in the US, but with two weeks of 600+ trucks inbounds, the market is not stable. Quality seems to be good on moderately priced limes. There are a quite a few mixed quality cartons coming across and for the recievers that can tolerate a little less quality, the price discounts can be significant. We will continue to see a declining market in the US until volume stops rising and demand increases. Memorial Day ads are focusing on melons and tree fruit, although limes do play a large part. We expect summer to be a great time for promotions and lime movement.

Mango Crop Update

We are in week 21 now. The total volume from Mexico last week was just slightly over the projected 2.5 million boxes and is running near the same pace this week with only 2 days reported. Supply is light for this time of year but demand is not out of control like we were expecting. We foresee the overall volume rising steadily in the weeks going forward as we move into the summer. See the Arrival Volume Chart below. I have added a forecast for the beginning of the Northern Sinaloa (aka Los Mochis) fruit fly free zone that does not require hot water treatment. Those are the columns that say "Zona Libre". Round volume should creep up weekly to a peak in weeks 25 to 34 and Honey (Ataulfo) volume should remain strong until rains affect the quality, which usually come by mid July. We are now in the process of transitioning out of Michoacan as the primary volume region into Jalisco, Nayarit, and Sinaloa. The Honey mangoes (Ataulfos) from these new regions are ready to pick, but the rounds are not quite ready in volume. Jalisco should start heavy next week. Nayarit and Sinaloa are still a couple of weeks away in most fields for proper picking maturity on the rounds. The weather has been very hot and dry lately, so the fruit should be progressing swiftly. We are hearing of some late stage abortion of fruit on the tree that may keep us from reaching those 4 million box weeks we have seen the past couple of years. It is hard to be sure of that because we could have a concentration of volume due to the lack of rain and hot weather.

Sizing has been well distributed on rounds from 7s through 12s and in Honeys (Ataulfos) from size 12s through 20s. See the Mexican Mango Crop Sizing charts below for actual percentages. Quality is awesome! Check out the pics at the bottom of this email. Note the large 5 -Down 24-Lb display box (same size as a pineapple box) as well as the 4kg box. We are able to pack all sizes of fruit in this style box for those interested in a more stable, stackable, and lower labor cost way to move mangoes.

Retailers, get ready for the Mango Mania Display Contest in July. Here is a link for more information.

Stores on ad on conventional mangoes increased from 6,230 stores to 8,877 stores on ad for the week ending 5/25/18. Weighted average retail price is $0.92 per piece. See the USDA Data on Retail Mango Ads chart below for detailed data by geographic region of the country. Stores on ad with Organic mangoes dropped from 1,606 stores to 1,422 stores this week. Average Organic price was at $1.57 per piece.

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