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Mango and Lime Crop Update and Forecast - Week 24/25

Lime Update

Weather and a strong domestic local and juice market in Mexico are having an effect on the lime market in the US. The lime growing regions have had steady rain for the past few weeks. This was good for the crop because it had been so dry up until then. However, the rain coupled with high temps not only creates issues with harvesting schedules but also with quality. We are seeing more blanching and styler in the US market. Packers need to rest the limes prior to sending to the US to insure a good pack. Fortunately, a strong domestic and juice market in Mexico has helped keep the majority of the lesser quality limes out of the US market. There are two types of markets on the US side….good quality and lesser quality markets. Be wary of low lime prices as this could indicated old inventory with issues. Sizing is still heavier on 200/175 with few 150s and larger. Organics are holding a good steady market even with more volume available. Keys are steady as well with little to no quality issues being seen.

Mango Crop Update

We finished week 24 Saturday and are starting week 25 now. Mexico finished strong on volume again last week pushing over 3.8 million boxes into the US market. Honeys (Ataulfos) are dropping as a percentage of the total meaning the volume of rounds has increased. I believe we are seeing the peak of the season on rounds the next 2 weeks. Sizing is still the big challenge with 10s and 12s being the promotable sizing in rounds. Everyone should have mangoes on ad for July 4th week. The market is still tight on 9s and larger but we believe the size profile will improve now as we move into Kents and because Southern Sinaloa received some desperately needed rain last week. We will be keeping a close eye on rainfall as that will determine the sizing, length of season, and quality for the coming weeks. We need more rain, ideally in the evenings and followed by sunshine the next day, to keep quality where it is now, which is excellent on the Kents. Northern Sinaloa (Zona Libre) will start any time with the non-hot water treated Honeys (Ataulfos). Northern Sinaloa has mostly Kents and Keitts and has been growing rapidly in planted area and field productivity. Large areas of newer orchards will reach the prime ages for production in the coming years. Even with the reported lower fruit set and losses due to winds, we believe the volume will reach or exceed the record volumes of last year. The more unpredictable factor in July will be the volume of Southern Sinaloa which will depend on how the rains, and therefore quality, behave.

Stores on ad on conventional mangoes decreased from 8,483 stores to 7,728 stores on ad for the week ending 6/23/18. Weighted average retail price is $0.87 per piece. See the USDA Data on Retail Mango Ads chart below for detailed data by geographic region of the country. Stores on ad with Organic mangoes jumped from 682 stores to 2,316 stores this week. Average Organic price was at $1.05 per piece.

Retailers, get ready for the Mango Mania Display Contest in July. Here is a link for more information.

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