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Mango and Lime Crop Update and Forecast - Week 26

Lime Update

Inbounds from Mexico have been lower the last couple of weeks. This is mostly due to weather (daily rains) and a heavier domestic pull in Mexico. Grower/packers are reporting that the Asiatic countries are starting to pull more volume. This will take more of the darker green limes off of the market from the US. Quality is still good from Mexico, but we are expecting to see more lighter color in the pack. This is due to 1) the nature of the summer limes (typically lighter in color, but juicer due to growing conditions), and 2) the larger pull from off shore (Asia/Europe) of the dark green pack. Sizing is increasing. We are now peaking on 175/200s. 110s are still in tight supply. 150s can substitute for larger limes and this trend is buoying the price on 150s. 230s/250s are tightening in supplies as the limes get bigger and summer demand increases. Organics are available in good supply and quality is good. Key limes have tightened a bit this week, mainly due to weather, not lack of supply in the field.

Mango Crop Update

We are in week 26 now. Week 25 ended Saturday with a total combined volume from all COOs just slightly down from the previous week. As you can see in the Arrival Volume Chart below, we expect volume from the Hot Water Treatment plants in Mexico to start to reduce while the non-hot water treated plants from the Zona Libre of Northern Sinaloa ramp up. We expect the combined volume on HWT and non-HWT fruit to remain very stable on round-only fruit for the next 4-5 weeks at around the 3 million box level, while the volume of Honey (Ataulfo) mangoes stays stable for the next couple of week, then starts to fall rapidly. Sizing on round fruit from the HWT plants is changing. Fruit is getting larger as we move to more Kents than Tommies. We also expect the Kents from the Zona Libre to be large when they start in a couple of weeks. You can clearly see a large shift in the sizing by studying the Mexican Mango Crop Sizing – Round Varieties chart below. Overall we expect size 10s to remain the peak size for the month of July. It is worth noting that opinions vary widely between various growers and importers with whom I speak ranging from a drastic reduction in volume over the coming month to a sustained onslaught of fruit over or near 4 million boxes per week. I am betting somewhere in the middle but I am more towards the high volume camp. This is why it is important for importers to plan and lock up ads and the corresponding supply well in advance so sudden changes in supply or grower attitudes do not leave you exposed.

The volume and size data becomes more difficult to obtain from Mexico when the Zona Libre of Northern Sinaloa begins. They do not report daily shipping volumes through EMEX, so we must extrapolate data from our own manifests, USDA crossings and speaking with growers and other importers.

We expect promotable volume of all sizes 7s through 12s in round mangoes for the entire month of July. The varieties will be mostly Kents with Tommies and Keitts also widely available. Honeys (Ataulfos) will be available as well with volumes dropping off quickly the second half of the month. The National Mango Board’s Mango Mania Display Contest will be taking place in July. Multi-variety displays with varietal POS material (cost free provided by NMB) would be a great way to educate consumers about the versatility and many flavors of mangos. Here is a link for more information.

Stores on ad on conventional mangoes increased from 7,728 stores to 9,184 stores on ad for the week ending 6/30/18. Weighted average retail price is $0.87 per piece. See the USDA Data on Retail Mango Ads chart below for detailed data by geographic region of the country. Stores on ad with Organic mangoes fell from 2,316 stores to 943 stores this week. Average Organic price was at $1.24 per piece.

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