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Mango and Lime Crop Update and Forecast - Week 28

Lime Update

Inbounds for Week 27 decreased by approximately 100 loads and this has brought some stability to the market on the US side. Mexican packers are still asking higher prices due to low pack outs and rain outs in the fields. We do not believe we will see an increase in market, but expect prices to hold on good quality product. Blanching and oil spotting are the issues the crop is havng due to the wet, hot weather. Precooling and strict grading practices are key this time of year. Organics and key limes are still in steady supplies, with no issues. Sizing is increasing. Peak sizes are still 175/200 but we are seeing most manifests have more 110/150s available. Sizes 230/250 are becoming limited and we can feel the market tighten on these sizes as the supplies dwindle. Weather in Mexico is predicted to have afternoon Thunderstorms all week with highs in the low 90s.

Mango Crop Update

We are in week 28 now. The Ataulfo (Honey mango) market is strong as we near the end of the Mexican Ataulfo season. The market on round (Kent/Tommy/Keitt) mangoes is more complicated. The Mexican exporters were forced to hit the brakes hard last week due to a very weak US spot market where it does not make sense to buy fruit from growers at the field prices in Mexico to sell for a loss in the US. Many importers are dialing back volume only to cover contracts and commitments and minimize excess volume that will be sold below cost. Round mango volume dropped by over a million boxes last week but this is not due to shortage of production but due to long inventories and low prices in the USA. There is plenty of mango production available in Mexico, but even the local processing industry is paying a better price in the field than what it takes for a packer/exporter who packs quality and does everything the right way to break even in the USA selling at $3.00. It is just not a profitable business as a packer/exporter or importer with field prices where they are and such a weak spot market. Plenty of fruit can be obtained for ads and promotions over the next 4-5 weeks with a little advanced planning and a price of $3.50 or higher depending on the size and week of promotion. We encourage all retailers to promote round mangoes in July and early August as there is a great crop with excellent flavor and relatively cheap pricing.

Crop reporting and projecting become much more difficult when Northern Sinaloa enters the picture because the 17 pack houses in the Zona Libre are not members of EMEX and do not report detailed data on a daily basis like the EMEX hot water treatment plants. We don’t have the data on what happened two weeks ago from the Zona Libre so it makes it hard to project the near future when you don't even know the recent past. We can make reasonable estimations by following the volume of crossings reported by customs and subtracting out the EMEX reported HWT volumes but this tells us nothing about variety or sizing from the Zona Libre. We know they are packing mostly Ataulfos and a few Tommies up to now and will start with Kents very soon and the sizing is expected to be large.

Back in Southern Sinaloa, Kents are in full swing and Keitts are about to start. Sizing on Keitts from southern Sinaloa is expected to be heavy on 10s and 12s, but they did get a much needed rain yesterday which may help the fruit size up over then next couple of weeks. Organic Kent production is in the peak of the season right now with only a modest premium over the conventional price. Now is a great time to pull the trigger on a quick organic mango ad or in-store promo.

Stores on ad on conventional mangoes rose from 5,002 stores to 6,047 stores on ad for the week ending 7/14/18. Weighted average retail price is $0.91 per piece. See the USDA Data on Retail Mango Ads chart below for detailed data by geographic region of the country. Stores on ad with Organic mangoes rose from 500 stores to 686 stores this week. Average Organic price was at $1.46 per piece.

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