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Mango and Lime Crop Update and Forecast - Week 32

Lime Update

The lime market has been increasing and getting stronger for the past week. There are fewer 110/150/175 limes available, so far, this week. Quality has improved, with the peak sizes being 230s. Weather in Veracruz has been wet with predicted 80-90% chance of rain through the weekend. This is making the price in the fields higher and more competitive. Inbounds are up by approximately 18% over last week, but still down 25% from 8-14 days prior. Although the numbers are on track for meeting last week’s, we feel that next week could really be interesting as harvest will be affected and the pack outs will be much less, all attributed to the rains Veracruz is experiencing now. Retail ad data is very revealing as to what is happening with the lime market and consumer trends. As consumers shift their focus to back to school shopping, fresh produce will naturally see a decrease in usage. Stores on ad were drastically reduced for the week ending 8/3, according to the USDA. Week ending 7/27, there were 2245 stores on ad, versus 1067 this week. Again, we attribute most of this to a shift in consumer priorities, but some may be due to the price increase that we are seeing now. One item to notice is organic limes. There is a small gap in volume happening right now and organic limes will be very expensive and hard to find. The market is around $35 per carton. Key limes are increasing as well in value. They are switching from one growing region to another, so there is a slight dip in supplies, coupled with rains in Western Mexico.

Mango Crop Update

We are in week 32 now. Total “Round” mango volume is at the peak of the season now and will continue near 3 million boxes per week through next week. Volumes are beginning to drop as Southern Sinaloa begins to wrap up their season (Projected end date of August 22nd.) Field prices continue to be strong in Southern Sinaloa and make it necessary to push for prices in the $4.00+ range in order to keep a profitable margin for the exporter/packer. This week is the transition week from primarily Kents to primarily Keitts in Southern Sinaloa. Northern Sinaloa is going to start this transition next week and be primarily Keitts by week 34.

We expect the sizing on the late Keitts from the Zona Libre in Northern Sinaloa to be very large peaking on 6s/7s in late August and September. Please consider trying an ad on Jumbo Keitts, PLU code 3114 in late August and September. Quality remains excellent in general on all the Kent and Keitt from Mexico.

The first Brazil containers are expected to arrive on August 17th in very limited volume. The volume is not expected to begin increasing until Week 37 & 38 arrival. This should mean a more smooth transition from Mexico to Brazil than the previous two years.

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