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Mango and Lime Crop Update and Forecast - Week 35

Lime Update

Heavy inbounds for the past few weeks and low quality/color has yielded a very volatile market. Good limes are very limited and sizing is an issue. Most manifests consisted of 50% plus 200s and smaller. Low pulls on the US side and quality complaints has led to a disastrous couple of weeks for importers. However, as the bad quality gets cleaned up and sizing/color improves, so should the market. September is normally a slow month for produce and limes are no exception. We anticipate markets being steady on 200s and smaller, with a continued premium for the larger sizes. This is because the fruit tends to ripen before it can size up. The weather continues with On/Off rains and high heat in Mexico. Precooling is a must in these growing situations to help extend the shelf life. The organics continue to be very tight in supplies with very high pricing. Rain in western Mexico is causing the key lime market to continue to be tight.

Mango Crop Update

We are in week 35 now. It has been a roller coaster ride the past week. Sizing in Mexico has shifted radically to very large Keitts. We do not have very current packout data on sizing from Northern Sinaloa other than our own manifests, but the peak sizing is now 5s and 6s with a significant percent of 4s now being packed as well. Sizes 7s and smaller are difficult to find uncommitted. Quality on the non-treated Kents was difficult with anthracnose developing/spreading over time as the fruit matured. We are basically past the Kent fruit now. We are not seeing the anthracnose on the non-treated Keitts yet. Some areas of Northern Sinaloa have had a lot more rain than others. Our fruit has been very clean and hard up to this point. No major storms are threatening the region to our knowledge at this time.

Brazilian Tommy arrivals were purposefully pushed back due to low markets at this time the last few years, but the market is ready and we have sent the signal to hit the gas. Unfortunately, we are looking at Friday, Sept. the 14th arrival to New Jersey with any type of volume to speak of. We should be into heavy volume starting with the arrival on the 21st. There is only one vessel per week during the Brazil deal docking late Thursday night to Friday morning with containers being received in the warehouse between Fridays and Mondays off the vessel. Outbound loading time frames of late Monday evening (or better yet Tuesday) to Friday early morning is the best. The warehouse is generally jammed with inbound containers starting late morning on Fridays through Monday afternoons. Wait times are generally lower when loading Tuesdays through Thursdays out of our New Jersey warehouse.

We can do volume promotions on Brazilian fruit loading the entire month of October. Sizing is normally a very even distribution from 7s to 12s with a few 6s and 14s. We have volume to commit to contracts and programs for anyone interested.

The first Brazil Air Ataulfos have arrived and they are beautiful and taste absolutely amazing. See pictures below. Please let us know if you are interested. We have mostly smaller sizing available at the moment. 20s and smaller.

Stores on ad on conventional mangoes fell from 4,625 stores to 4,483 stores on ad for the week ending 8/31/18. Weighted average retail price is $1.05 per piece. See the USDA Data on Retail Mango Ads chart below for detailed data by geographic region of the country. Stores on ad with Organic mangoes rose from 477 stores to 1,253 stores this week. Average Organic price was at $1.30 per piece.

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