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Mango and Lime Crop Update and Forecast - Week 36

Lime Update

Inbound lime volumes are remaining steady this week from Mexico thus far. Although the supply is below 500 loads, demand does not seem to be pushing the US market up. Large fruit, specifically 110/150, are difficult to come by and are anticipated to remain at a much higher cost than any other size. Mexican packers are needing more money as grower prices are higher in the field. Unfortunately, most of the manifests are coming across at over 70% small fruit (200s and smaller) and the price doesn’t make sense for the US market. There have been nightly rains in most of the growing region and that is affecting some harvest schedules, but not enough to cause a significant drop in inbounds. Quality and color are improving as the majority of the limes are coming in as new crop, but sizing will continue to be an issue. The organic market remains high, no matter the size, but price is expected to normalize by the end of September. Promotions on 230s would be optimal at this point in time and we would encourage retailers to size down if possible to get a better price point and insure supplies. The end of next week will be a bit challenging as the 16 de Septiembre holiday falls on a Sunday this year. Sunday is normally a big harvest day to pack Monday for Thursday arrivals. This will have some effect on the market but at this point, the consensus of most importers is that it will be business as usual for limes.

Mango Crop Update

We are ending week 36 now. Overall mango volumes have continued to decline from Mexico with the exit of Southern Sinaloa even as Northern Sinaloa (Zona Libre) is in the peak of production. Peak sizing this week has been 5s and 6s with any smaller sizing being extremely undersupplied versus commitments. It is a "name your price" spot market on 7s and smaller of retail quality. In reality there is no volume available for spot sales due to commitments. There continues to be light scattered rains throughout the growing region causing the fruit to generally decline in appearance with heavy lenticel freckling and sap burn marks. The late Mexican Keitt does have excellent flavor and beautiful flesh despite the cosmetic and sizing challenges. Even though we are not putting out pricing due to incredibly tight availability, we have heard quotes in the market from $4.50 to $6.00 but find it very hard to find the actual fruit when trying to buy and load day to day. We have been surprised by the strong demand, swift sales, and ad activity on the jumbo Keitts. It seems many retailers have embraced this wonderful tasting Keitt mango despite the merchandising challenges of extreme sizing and skin defects.

Brazilian Tommies and a few Palmer are now arriving and the quality has been fantastic. See picture of Brazil Tommy at the bottom of this email. Also see the Arrival Volume Chart below. We are confident that our Brazil volume projections are very accurate as to what will happen on each arrival. Volume will build to peak arrivals throughout October. We were basically pre-sold out of yesterday's arrival before it landed but spot pricing is being quoted from $7.00 to $8.00 in the market. Next week's vessel, the Monte Rosa, left late and will likely port late Friday the 14th meaning containers will be available only Monday the 17th, but possibly Saturday the 15th. Brazil sizing started with an 8/9 peak but should shift to a 9/10 peak.

We can do volume promotions again starting to load at the end of September and going throughout October with volume only expected to increase further throughout November with the Ecuador peak overlapping with the end of Brazil. We expect pricing to soften starting in October as the total volume of mangoes entering the country rises weekly. Ecuador has started packing Ataulfos. Some of that fruit may have been picked too early. First arrivals will be primarily west coast starting at the end of week 38. Sizing is expected to peak on 18s/20s.

Stores on ad on conventional mangoes fell from 4,483 stores to 3,522 stores on ad for the week ending 9/7/18. Weighted average retail price is $1.05 per piece. See the USDA Data on

Retail Mango Ads chart below for detailed data by geographic region of the country. Stores on ad with Organic mangoes fell from 1,253 stores to 529 stores this week. Average Organic price was at $1.29 per piece.

Below is the National Mango Board Annual Mango Industry Reception for PMA

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