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Mango and Lime Crop Update and Forecast - Week 38

Lime Update

Inclement weather has caused supply and quality issues this past week in the lime category. Inbounds have decreased by (36) loads the last 7 days reported. We may see even less coming across this week due to more predicted rains. Coupled with rain, Mexico also celebrating a holiday this weekend and that may cause some labor issues for the beginning of the week. This is usually not a large contributing factor, but in a rising market and inclement weather, it could have a some impact. Manifests are still coming across as 70% 200s and smaller. We expect the large market (175 and larger) to continue to be in the low $20s for next week, mostly from the lack of supplies. The organic market continues to be in the mid $30s and with tight supplies.

Mango Crop Update

We are beginning week 38 now. The mango market has been steadily strengthening for Brazilian Tommy as more and more customers make the switch out of Mexican fruit. Brazil arrivals are still light. Spot market FOBs are being quoted in the $8.00 to $9.00 range depending on the size and who is quoting it. Most fruit is pre-committed through September arrivals. In the Arrival Volume Chart below you can see our forecasts for volume from all regions currently shipping. On the far right you can see the projected volume of round vs yellow mangoes. We are about to drop from the 1.7m box level of round mangos to the 1.3m box level for several weeks. The overall market will be tight on availability for the next 5 weeks or so compared to the current level of demand. However, demand will drop with these high prices and with weather turning colder. The good news from our perspective is that we have heavy volume programmed for our arrivals on September 28th and for the following 4 weeks, so we are in a position to take on promotions and additional business during the Brazil peak. Please look at running mango ads for loading from October 8th forward. We can give reliable price and availability guarantees. Ataulfo ads should be possible again starting to load during week 42. Peak sizing is expected to be in the 18/20 size.

We are currently taking pre-books on the arrival of Friday, Sept. 28th.

Quality, appearance, and taste are excellent so far in the Brazil deal. A Tommy never tastes as good as a Mexican Keitt to me, but compared to previous seasons, Brazil has produced a better tasting fruit this year in my opinion and according to everyone that I have spoken to in the industry. This makes sense because the growers have waited later to get started and the weather conditions have been ideal. The Palmer as well has been far superior in taste compared to previous seasons. We pushed for a later picking point and the growers are following through.

Stores on ad on conventional mangoes fell from 3,893 stores to 2,006 stores on ad for the week ending 9/21/18. Weighted average retail price is $1.18 per piece. See the USDA Data on Retail Mango Ads chart below for detailed data by geographic region of the country. Stores on ad with Organic mangoes fell from 901 stores to 179 stores this week. Average Organic price was at $1.50 per piece.

We hope to see you at the Mango Industry Meeting during PMA. It will be 5:30-7:30pm at the Rosen Centre Hotel on Friday October 19th in Orlando. You can check the NMB's Event here

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