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Mango and Lime Crop Update and Forecast - Week 39

Lime Update

Quality and color are improving with the majority of the limes coming in as new crop. Sizing continues to be short on the 110s/150s. Mexico received a lot of rain for the past couple of weeks and this is just starting to improve the availability on 150s and 175s, but note that the majority of the manifests are still heavier on 200/230s. As trees soak up the extra water, the fruit becomes full and matures much faster. This could potentially cause some issues with quality if the growers do not invest in grove care and maintenance. (Remove excess water in groves, maintain spray schedules, etc.). The industry should have a better indication in the next week or two. The organic market remains high and may continue that way if the crop quality diminishes with the excess rains. Promotions on 230s would be optimal at this point in time and we would encourage retailers to size down if possible to get a better price point and insure supplies. Inbounds were heavy last week, 637 loads, up 15.9% from the 549 loads the previous week. If this continues we will see the market come off the current levels. There are 1,521 stores on conventional lime ads this week at an average retail of $0.31 per piece, 292 stores on ad selling by the pound at $0.48/lb., and 130 stores on organic lime ads at an average of $0.33 per piece. The price average is including all sizes.

Mango Crop Update

We are in week 39 now. Overall mango volume entering the country dropped in week 38 by about 600,000 boxes compared to week 37. This was due to heavy rains in Northern Sinaloa shutting down packing for about 4 days and many pack houses deciding to shut down for the season. Packing has resumed but all Mexican growers should be finishing packing in the next week to 10 days. The fruit is excellent from a taste standpoint, but it will have significant lenticel freckling and occasional sap staining. There is no way to eliminate those skin conditions. We have fruit in Mexican keitts Nogales and Los Angeles. Call if interested.

Brazil's volume is ramping up from 90 containers last week to 147 arriving this week then entering the peak with 177 containers arriving next Friday October 5th. We will have good volume for ads and promotions starting to load Friday October 5th/Monday October 7th. We are looking for retailers interested in running ads loading throughout October. Pricing can be significantly lower than current spot market for committed ads. Although the overall volume for the country is not that high, Amazon has a huge Brazilian program with excellent volume on sizes 8s, 9s, 10s and 12s still available to commit for planned ads. See the Brazil Mango Size Breakdown chart below to see the sizing profile by vessel. Quality and condition have been excellent so far this season and that is expected to continue. Most importantly, we have noticed that the Brazilian fruit tastes better in general than years past. We expect this to have a positive impact on consumers repeat purchase behavior. The Tommys are really gorgeous. See the pics at the bottom of the page.

We are near the end of our Brazilian air shipped Ataulfo program which has been fantastic on quality and absolutely amazing on taste. The first Ecuadorian boat Ataulfos will arrive next week. We will wait to see the quality, maturity and taste prior to quoting them out. We are more confident in the week 41 and future arrivals in terms of maturity and picking point.

See the Arrival Volume Chart below for projected arrivals by week by country of origin. We have revised our Ecuador volume projections due to a real slow down in packing in Ecuador. The fruit has not been ready to pack from an internal maturity standpoint. Retailers, please plan a big mango promotion for Thanksgiving. This will coincide with our Ecuador peak of volume.

Stores on ad on conventional mangoes fell from 2,006 stores to 1,888 stores on ad for the week ending 9/28/18. Weighted average retail price is $1.05 per piece. See the USDA Data on Retail Mango Ads chart below for detailed data by geographic region of the country. Stores on ad with Organic mangoes fell from 279 stores to 55 stores this week. Average Organic price was at $1.00 per piece.

We hope to see you at the Mango Industry Meeting during PMA. It will be 5:30-7:30pm at the Rosen Centre Hotel on Friday October 19th in Orlando.

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