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Mango and Lime Crop Update and Forecast - Week 41

Lime Update

Wet weather will slow Mexico down on limes for the next few days. Although the total inbounds have dropped around 15% from the previous week, the US market has continued to decline. A few factors play a part in this. One, September and October are very slow months for limes with few holidays to drive sales. Market prices are approximately $1-$2 higher this year than last year. Quality also seems to be suffering some although we are in new crop. The constant rains in Mexico, coupled with high heat has affected the overall shelf life of the lime. We saw the same effects in August. Limes would come into the US with very little issues, but rapidly change in color in the warehouse. Mexico is still demanding higher prices for the product due to low pack outs because of quality. With constant rains, the limes will have defects such as styler and oil spotting. We urge packers to precool thoroughly as this helps mitigate the rapid breakdown of the limes. Keeping the cold chain complete is imperative in conditions like these. Lime Ads for week ending 10/13 are declining as well compared to the week prior, 1785 this week, compared to 1844 the week prior. Average retail price is down about $0.05, to $0.24 per piece. The lime market should start recovering around Thanksgiving. Holidays are always a good mover for limes. Consumers are eating out more and attending parties, thus more lime consumption. Sizing is shifting upwards, with peak sizes being in 175s/200s. Mango Crop Update We are in week 41 now. The mango market has been steadily declining the last 2 weeks despite the volume of fruit in the market also reaching a low point.. This is due to the decline in mango ad numbers, the higher retail prices slowing movement, the colder weather, and the abundant amount of domestic fruit like grapes, apples, etc. in the market in general. We have plenty of fruit available to commit to ads for loading next week and for the coming weeks. Ad prices can be significantly lower than current spot market prices. As you can see in the Arrival Volume Chart below, the volume of fruit only increases each week from now through Thanksgiving. We are looking for retailers to run large volume ads every week, especially on size 10s and 12s because the Ecuador crop size distribution is extremely small, peaking sharply on 12s. Ecuador has delayed a little due to cool weather, but the trees are loaded with fruit and the peak packing is about to start. Brazil is still in the peak of arrivals. The quality has been excellent this year and we expect this to continue. Of special note, the Palmer variety has been tasting great. Growers have managed to get the picking point right (not too early) this year and it has made a tremendous difference in the taste of the fruit. I would like to encourage people to give the Palmers a try. We also have some Keitt variety arriving the next few weeks from Brazil in larger sizes for those customers who prefer a fibreless mango over a Tommy. Early Ecuador Ataulfos came in immature, sour, and skin stained, but we expect that to improve with next week's arrivals. For sure we should be into fruit picked at the right maturity arriving here by week 43 and volumes will remain strong right through Thanksgiving so you can plan to carry Ataulfos (Honeys) again from late October right on through mid-December at a minimum. Ecuador Ataulfo sizing also tends to run small as you can see in the sizing charts below. Peru is also pushing back its timeframe so we don’t expect significant volume to come from Peru until January. We will start adding Peru to the forecast next week. First arrivals should be in early December. Today's vessel arrival from Brazil, the MV Safmarine Mafadi, broke down yesterday leaving New York bound for Philadelphia. That last word we heard was that it would be fixed and on the way for a late afternoon Friday arrival to Philadelphia meaning no one will get their containers out on Friday. Our plan is to pay the overtime and gate fees to be able to get containers out on Saturday to fill what we can for orders before Monday. Stores on ad on conventional mangoes dropped from 2,848 stores to 1,541 stores on ad for the week ending 10/13/18. Weighted average retail price is $1.35 per piece. See the USDA Data on Retail Mango Ads chart below for detailed data by geographic region of the country. Stores on ad with Organic mangoes fell from 40 stores to 9 stores this week. Average Organic price was at $2.99 per piece. We hope to see you at the Mango Industry Meeting during PMA. It will be 6:30 - 8:30pm at the Rosen Centre Hotel on Friday October 19th in Orlando. You can also get our Crop Update via email please make sure to subscribe.

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