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Mango and Lime Crop Update and Forecast - Week 44

Stores on ad on conventional mangoes increased from 3,243 stores to 3,588stores on ad for the week ending 11/02/18. Weighted average retail price was $1.09 per piece. See the USDA Data on Retail Mango Ads chart below for detailed data by geographic region of the country. Stores on ad with Organic mangoes fell from 19 stores to 0 stores this week.


Lime Update

Lime volumes have been erratic as ever the last two weeks. As you can see in the 21-days rolling Mexican Lime Crossings Chart below, volume fell dramatically from the 17th through 24th due to rains, but came back with a vengeance when the weather cleared and hit almost 700 loads the last 7 days. The market is reeling with a wide range of quotes and excess inventory at the border. Sizing is running large with plenty of all sizes 110s through 200s and with 230s/250s being on the tighter side and also having less light color. We expect lime sizing to remain this way for the foreseeable future. This is a great time for fast attack promotions. Please run opportunities by us. The number of stores on ad on conventional limes was up from 1,818 last week to 2,542 stores the week ending yesterday at an average retail price of $0.36 per piece.


Mango Crop Update

We are ending week 44 today. The mango market is very active in general with good demand and a very shifting supply situation. As Ecuador ramps up, the supply is shifting from being reliably well distributed on size with all arrivals coming into Philadelphia out of Brazil and handled by a few companies to a totally different dynamic. There are a lot of smaller importers entering the market and receiving Ecuador containers and the arrival volumes are well split between New York/Philadelphia, Miami, Los Angeles as the major ports with Houston also receiving a few containers per week. See the Ocean Container Arrivals By Port Chart below. Almost all the size 9s and larger coming will be Brazilian arriving in the Northeast the next few weeks. The Ecuador fruit is just extremely small, with only 16% of the fruit being size 9s or larger. See the Ecuador Tommy Sizing Chart below. It is critical for the mango industry to run aggressive ads for the size 12s for weeks 46, 47, 48, and 49. This will be the peak of the Ecuador deal and highly concentrated in size 12s which represent around one half of the export crop right now. Quality has remained very good on both Brazil and Ecuador. You cannot expect late season Brazil fruit to be 100% firm-hard, but the fruit is generally firm with some pieces having break when we receive them.

We will extend Brazil as far as possible to have larger fruit available and hope to see a little size improvement when Kents/Keitts start in December. Peru weather is currently very cool which is delaying the season. We will visit Peru next week and have better information, but we are hearing that Peru sizing is also looking smaller than normal. It will be late December before any significant volume of Peru Kents are in the US market.

Honeys (Ataulfos) are peaking now out of Ecuador and the quality and flavor have reached a decent point. This has not been a good season up to this point on quality or flavor for Ecuador Ataulfos, but we are seeing some better quality finally this week.

Stores on ad on conventional mangoes increased from 2,598 stores to 3,243 stores on ad for the week ending 10/26/18. Weighted average retail price is $1.13 per piece. See the USDA Data on Retail Mango Ads chart below for detailed data by geographic region of the country. Stores on ad with Organic mangoes rose from 0 stores to 19 stores this week. Average Organic price was at $1.50 per piece.












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