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Mango and Lime Crop Update and Forecast - Week 45

Lime Update

Lime volumes were massive last week so the market became sloppy with too much volume sitting at the border. Volumes are off 17.6% over the last 7 days reported, but the volume is still massive. It need to come down more. Grower/packers in Mexico are trying to push the market up because it is cheap but the weak demand and long inventories are not allowing that to happen. This week has been a roller coaster with importers shutting down inbounds, then getting cleaned up, then growers wanting more money before the market rises, etc. Quality is variable with the mountain regions producing smaller, greener, higher quality limes due to the fact that the high ground drains very quickly after the rains, where the lower regions were waterlogged so the sizing grew quickly causing lighter color and shorter shelf life. Promotional opportunities are still there. Please run any ad opportunities by us. The number of stores on ad on conventional limes was down from 2,543 last week to 1,506 stores the week ending 11/9 at an average retail price of $0.33 per piece. There were zero organic lime ads.

Mango Crop Update

We are ending week 45 tomorrow. The market has been very active on both coasts with lots of chains on ad, possibly receiving a boost from the lack of avocados in the market. We are in the peak of packing in Ecuador right now with the peak arrivals hitting the USA over the next 4 weeks from week 46 to week 49. See the Arrival Volume Chart below. Note that the heavy volumes are now until mid-December and that we project volume to come down significantly in weeks 51 and 52, so get your mango promotions in now to finish 2018 strong! Ecuador sizing is still strongly peaking on 12s but it is improving. See the Ecuador Tommy Sizing Chart below. They have basically shut down packing 14s beyond the volume of committed business. Size 10s rose from ~25% to ~35% of the volume shipped. We foresee 9s and larger remaining snug but size 10s and 12s being extremely plentiful and highly available for promotions now through week 50. Ataulfos are in good supply with the peak promotional sizes we can offer being 20s and 22s. We still have brazil mangoes coming for another 4 weeks with very large sizing but limited volumes. Quality is great on all Brazil and Ecuador round mangoes. Honey (Ataulfo) quality is good as well. There is some off quality Ataulfo out there but we have had some very nice arrivals the last 2 weeks as well. Weather is great in Ecuador with no issues on the horizon.

Peru has 3 of the 14 HWT pack houses certified and has been shipping a load or 2 of Ataulfos the last couple of weeks. Peru has already begun air shipments of Edward variety to Europe. The season looks very promising although it will be a little late in starting with the Kents. Quality looks perfect. There is a high gradient of temperature between day and night which leads to an excellent red blush on the Kents. We can clearly predict the peak weeks of arrival to the USA as weeks 5, 6, and 7. That is January 28 to Feb. 17th loading FOB. Sizing looks to be peaking on 9s/8s/10s. For those of you planning ads far in advance, please hit this time frame. It should be fantastic fruit with incredible flavor as always with Peru Kents.

Stores on ad on conventional mangoes rocketed from 3,243 stores to 7,018 stores on ad for the week ending 11/9/18. Weighted average retail price dropped to $0.88 per piece. This put mangoes back into the top 10 most promoted fruit this week. See the USDA Data on Retail Mango Ads chart below for detailed data by geographic region of the country. There were organic mango ads

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