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Mango and Lime Crop Update and Forecast - Week 49

Lime Update

Lime volumes have remained heavy the last 7 days reported but are down from the previous 7 days (-19.5%, 130 loads). There has been some rain and cooler weather the last few days in the growing region. Volumes have been abnormally high resulting in prices that are abnormally low for this time of year. The late rains in the fall in Mexico are what helped extend the high season. Volumes are expected to drop and markets expected to rise as we approach the New Year. Quality has been improving and should continue to improve in terms of green color, skin health and shelf life even though the juice content naturally drops with the onset of winter. Please run ad opportunities by us. New Years is a natural fit for lime ads with all the mixed drinks that need to be made with a slice of lime. There is volume in all sizes at the moment on both conventional and organic. There are 1,737 stores on ad on limes this week at an average retail price of $0.25 per unit. This is up from 1,275 stores last week. There are no ads on organic limes.

Mango Crop Update

We are in week 49 now. The market is sitting very long on mangos from last week’s large spike in arrival volumes. See the Arrival Volume Chart below. The market on sizes 10s and 12s is a total buyer’s market with far more supply than demand at the moment. Sizing is improving on Ecuador each week but still peaking on 10s, then 12s. See the Ecuador Round Mango Sizing chart below. We are looking for load volume opportunities to move sizes 10s and 12s over the next 2 weeks.

Ecuador packing volume is now dropping fast, so arrival volumes will come down significantly for week 51 as shown in the chart below. Three of the 4 pack houses will be closing on Christmas Eve and the last one is undetermined at this point. Weather has been good with no significant rains to affect quality at the end of the season. Seasonal rains usually begin mid-December and the harvest winds down quickly after they start.

Small Peru growers were on strike for nine days blocking all US certified pack houses from receiving fruit. They do this every year to try to force higher prices and it is always counterproductive. The strike ended yesterday and packing resumed today. Now that it is over we expect the season to pick up at the weekly volumes projected below. The only reason it does not ramp up faster is the coming Christmas and New Year Holidays that fall on a Tuesday creating a shortened workweek for 2 consecutive weeks. We don’t foresee any drastic shortness of supplies as long as vessel schedules do not get messed up during the Holidays causing a few days of production to delay or to miss a boat. We could be wrong and see one very low volume arrival week in week 3 but we choose to be optimistic. We can say with certainty we will have a ton of fruit for loading in weeks 4, 5, 6, 7. Those will be the best weeks for Peruvian supplies. Please put major mangoes in place for the peak of the Peru crop loading from January 23rd to Feb. 16th.

Mexican mango growing regions have been receiving abnormal rains lately which will affect the flowering for March production. This creates a lot of uncertainty about the start of the Mexican season on both quality and volume. We will continue to monitor and give updates on this situation.

Stores on ad on conventional mangoes rose from 2,752 stores to 8,332 stores on ad for the week ending 12/6/18. Weighted average retail price is $1.02 per piece. See the USDA Data on Retail Mango Ads chart below for detailed data by geographic region of the country. Stores on ad on organic mangoes rose from 2 stores to 455 stored at an average price of $1.51 per piece.

We hope to see you at the New York Produce Show on Wednesday, December 12th. Please visit us at booth #545.

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