Mango and Lime Crop Update and Forecast - Week 5/6

Lime Update

The lime market crashed hard after the record 827 loads came in 2 weeks ago. Since then we saw volume drop to 450 loads the following week due to both market collapse and rain restraining the volume. Volumes came back up this past week to 577 loads and could end up a little higher as the last days volumes were not reported at the California crossing point when the data was published. We expect this market to hold around this level for the next two weeks as this crop finishes. We expect demand to slow down post-Superbowl and extra inventory to keep the market in check for these next two weeks. Then, in mid-February, we expect volumes to start dropping and the market prices to start going up in preparation for a shortage of supply in March. This is typical of this time of year. When nights get cold there is less bloom and therefore less fruit 90 days later, and nights started getting colder about 75 days ago in lime regions of Mexico. The lime market is a constant struggle of buy price in Mexico and selling price in the states. The growers know the shortage will start to be felt in a couple of weeks so they will try to raise the field price as early as possible in anticipation of the higher market to come.

The number of stores on ad on limes rose from 1,641 this past week to 6,912 stores for the week ending Feb, 6th at an average retail price of $0.34 per unit. The large spike is due to Superbowl demand where limes are popular for mixed drinks and as an ingredient in guacamole. There were also 131 stores on ad by the pound at an average price of $0.63 per pound. There were 39 stores on an organic lime ads at an average retail of $0.69 per piece according to the USDA specialty crop market news survey of more than 400 retailers.

Mango Crop Update

Week 5 just ended and we are now in week 6. This is the absolute peak of arrivals of Peru Kents right now and the market is overloaded with fruit. It has been a while since we saw a market like this in the offshore mango deal across all sizes. Breakeven pricing is irrelevant at this point for non-programmed spot market business because there is more fruit needing to be sold than the market can absorb. It is a bidding war to move fruit right now. This is especially true of fruit with give. Now is a great time to run quick in-store promos if print ads are not already set. The Peru Kents are beautiful, clean, and the flavor is fantastic. This oversupply will continue another two or three weeks, then round mango volumes will get tight again as we get into March. See the Arrival Volume Chart below. We expect round mango volumes to bottom out around the first and second week of March as Peru drops volume fast and Mexican round fruit is just not going to be ready in maturity to pick in volume until mid-March in Oaxaca and Michoacán.

Peru Kent sizing made a significant shift to larger fruit. See the Peru Kent Mango Sizing chart below. 7s and 8s are now in excellent supply. This always happens as the main Piura region hits the late part of the season. More smaller fruit will start packing now as Motupe and Olmos regions hit their peak. See the number of containers arriving to the USA by port of entry in the Ocean Container Arrivals by Port chart below. The west coast is seeing a significantly higher volume now than prior to week 5. I mentioned the backlog of containers packed but not shipped in my last crop update but did not prepare the chart this week. The backlog has not started to fall and is around 300 containers packed but not yet on a vessel from Peru. This means arrival volume will continue heavy for now out of Peru. Market is improving in Europe and news of our poor market price is now being considered by Peru exporters so we expect a shift of volume toward Europe now.

We expect the market to be tight enough in March that we are going to bring back Brazilian mangos for the entire month. Pay attention to the far right columns of the Arrival Volume Chart. While the overall volume stays relatively flat over March, the volume of rounds goes down drastically and the volume of yellows rises rapidly. They are two very different markets that do not act in concert with each other. Honey mangoes (Ataulfos) should be the focus for retailers in March as they will be in great supplies when the rounds are short. Initial Honey (Ataulfo) mango sizing out of Mexico is shown in the sizing chart below.

Mexican and Central American Tommy mangos will be highly promotable again by mid-April when volumes return and pass the 2.5 million box per week level. By mid-April we will have mangos in heavy volumes on both round and yellow all the way through spring and summer. We see no gaps or low points in supply developing and expect very strong supplies and good quality throughout the peak Mexican mango season.

Stores on ad on conventional mangos fell from 9,226 stores to 6,132 stores on ad for the week ending Feb. 6th. Weighted average retail price was $1.08 per piece. Stores on organic mango ads fell from 1,390 this past week to 588 stores week ending Feb. 6th at an average retail price of $1.44 each. See the USDA Data on Retail Mango Ads chart below for detailed data by geographic region of the country.

Please see pics of our product below including mango, limes, papayas, and ginger.

Mango and Lime Crop Update and Forecast - Week 46

Lime Update

The lime market has not done what we expected at all the last two weeks. I have to admit I bought into the false theory that the summer drought created a giant hole in production for November and that just has not been the case. That may have been true in certain areas in Veracruz but the limes keep coming from other regions. The 21 day Mexican Lime Crossings Chart below shows volumes actually spiked up to 737 loads in 7 days just when we thought they would dry up, and have fallen back to a normal 545 and 540 the last two 7 day cycles. The market pricing is fairly stable across sizes. Demand is slow. Frequent rains recently have brought bigger sizing but also brought down the overall quality. The low yield seen by quality packers translates into a higher price needed versus packers not grading out hard, so the market price range is very wide. The pricing above is for the top quality product but much lower prices can be had for #2s and “1-1/2s” on quality.

The number of stores on ad on limes rose from 699 last week to 1,418 stores for the week ending 11/14 at an average retail price of $0.38 per unit. There were also 75 stores on ad by the pound at an average price of $0.77 per pound. There were zero stores on an organic lime ads according to the USDA specialty crop market news survey of more than 400 retailers.

Mango Crop Update

We are ending week 46 now. The market has gotten very tight on size 9s and larger and is softening on 10s and smaller. Brazil arrivals will continue for a few more weeks because we keep pushing for more large sized fruit as long as their volume can justify keeping a USDA inspector on site for hot water treatment. Only 2 Brazil pack houses remain open. Quality is still coming in excellent. Ecuador is entering the peak packing weeks now after a packing slowdown in week 45 due to all of the premature cutting finally catching up to a couple of the big growers down there. Please see the Arrival Volume Chart below. There is less volume next week before the arrival volume explodes week 48. Next week, big fruit (9s and larger) will be tight, but importers are already carrying inventory on 10s and 12s and see big volume coming on future manifests, so we do not believe the market will feel the lower volume. We are pushing hard for ads in-store weeks 49, 50, 51, and 52 on 10s and 12s to carry us through the peak of Ecuador. Sizing from Ecuador is just small peaking on 12s and then 10s. See the Ecuador sizing charts below.

Ataulfos (Honey Mangos) are extremely tight. The volume of production in Ecuador is just not keeping up with the growing demand for this variety. We are past the peak on Ecuador Ataulfos and Hadens. We have just started Keitts and the Kents will start packing next week.

Peru has had some early Keitts but not shipped to the USA because the sizing has been small and the market much higher in Europe. Ataulfos are packing this week for the USA and Kents will start soon but there will not be volume to switch any major programs over from Ecuador until the last days of December.

Stores on ad on conventional mangos fell from 3,275 stores to 2,866 stores on ad for the week ending 11/14. Weighted average retail price was $1.16 per piece. Stores on organic mango ads fell from 144 last week to 72 stores this week with an average retail price of $3.21 each. . See the USDA Data on Retail Mango Ads chart below for detailed data by geographic region of the country.

Mango and Lime Crop Update and Forecast - Week 41

Lime Update

The 21 day Mexican Lime Crossings Chart below shows supply volume going from 480 loads up to 627 loads and further up to 637 loads the last 7 days. We believe there is a drop in production to come but the discussion, or difference of opinion, between sources is when this shortage will begin. Some say week 43 and others say as late as week 46. What they agree on is that the crop we are currently picking has much less fruit behind it as a result of the drought in the summer causing the flowering and fruit set to be very poor. Sizing is still peaking on 200/230. Quality has improved further which was needed. When the shortage hits it will be much easier to find small limes than large limes, which is nothing new, but it should be very pronounced and drive a massive price difference between 230s and smaller and 200s and larger.

The number of stores on ad on limes rose from 333 last week to 454 stores for the week ending 10/10 at an average retail price of $0.25 per unit. There were also 97 stores on ad by the pound at an average price of $0.72 per pound. There were 109 stores on an organic lime ads at an avg. retail of 0.69 each according to the USDA specialty crop market news survey of more than 400 retailers.

Mango Crop Update

We are in week 41. We are in the peak arrival weeks of the Brazilian mango season now and the next 3 weeks. Our heaviest availability will be on size 7s and 8s. 8s is the peak size overall. Sizes 9s and 10s have strong, steady demand, but sizes 7s and 8s are still being held back by the lingering Mexican fruit supplying many fresh cut processors. See the Brazil Mango Size Breakdown Chart below. Size 12s and 14s are generally undersupplied. Quality ranges from borderline to truly exceptional on the appearance of the fruit. We have plenty of fruit for promotion immediately on 6s, 7s, and 8s. Call us if you are looking to move mangos!

The first Brazilian Keitts have arrived. See the picture of a 6 count Keitt below. Keitts are the best way to go for eating quality right now even though they don’t always have the fantastic appearance of the Tommy. Availability is very limited, but call if interested. Also please see our “Bella” label Tommy Atkins in the picture below. It is a fantastic looking box and pallet in my heavily biased opinion.

Ecuador’s first organic Tommy should arrive week 44. We will update if they get packed and out next week to stay on track. Ataulfos are on the water now. See the initial size breakdown below. We are hopeful the sizing will stay this way as it is bigger in general than recent years.

Stores on ad on conventional mangos dropped from 3,464 stores to 1,359 stores on ad for the week ending 10/10. Weighted average retail price was $1.32 per piece. Stores on organic mango ads rose from 32 last week to 85 stores this week with an average retail price of $1.59 each. See the USDA Data on Retail Mango Ads chart below for detailed data by geographic region of the country.