Mango and Lime Crop Update and Forecast - Week 1

Lime Update

Lime volumes spiked just before the Christmas break, but packing has been light due to the holidays the last week resulting in tight supplies at the moment at the border. Markets are tight in Mexico as well and the FOB Texas prices are rising due to very limited availability for this weekend. See the crossing data below for a 21 day lookback of reported crossings. Rains are in the forecast for Veracruz next week. Honestly, no one knows when or if there will be another flush of product hit the market because growers are holding back trying to raise the market. The market could be up or down a week from now. It is a very short cycle supply vs. demand market unless you are on contract. There are 2,196 stores on ad on limes this week at an average retail price of $0.30 per unit. This is up from 1,474 stores last week. There are only 19 stores on organic ads.

Mango Crop Update

We are nearing the end of week 1 now. Demand for mangos is very high due to most retailers running ads for New Year’s. We are also feeling very strong ad activity for loading weeks 3 and 4 coming up. The market is legitimately tight at FOB level and most terminal markets are fairly dry. Ecuador is completely done packing with all HWT plants closed but arrivals will continue to trickle in through week 3. Peru is now beginning the peak of packing and will kick into full gear next week. We believe the market will be tight between now and the beginning of the peak of Peru arrivals. We have revised projections in the Arrival Volume Chart below due to the Peru volumes just reported for arrival week 2. Peru weather is currently very hot so the packing should really take off next week, week 2. That fruit leaves beginning of week 3 and arrives beginning of week 5 which is when the real peak of arrivals start. Let’s get the promotions in the books now for weeks 5,6,7 and 8 loading. We are concerned about the back end of the deal (weeks 9- 12) due to the current hot weather and the El Nino phenomenon indicators that are popping up now. If early El Nino rains come in February, the end of February and early March could see a lack of supply.

Quality and flavor are amazing on the Peru Kents, as usual. Sizing has been peaking strongly on 10s but is improving with larger sizes more prevalent with next week’s arrival. See pictures of the conventional and organic Peru Kents below. Also, please see the picture of the first ever Peru Edward variety we have imported. This variety has great flavor, fibreless flesh, and a brix between 15-17. Call if you would like to experience a true premium eating mango.

Mexico is certifying the first hot water treatment plant next week. I have added last years actual volumes as a forecast of what will ship this year. We would caution anyone considering pulling this very early Mexican fruit to make sure the fruit is not immature. We would not pack this immature fruit but others will. No consumer deserves to eat a sour mango that never ripens properly. In addition to this concern, all southern growing regions of Mexico received abnormal out-of-season rains during the flowering of fruit that will be picked during Jan. through March. so quality is a real concern in the early Mexican deal. We would consider mid-February the right time to start on Mexican Ataulfos for good quality and eating experience and early to mid-March for round mangos. Even then,

Stores on ad on conventional mangoes rose from 5,126 stores to 8,093 stores on ad for the week ending today. Weighted average retail price is $0.79 per piece. Mangos were back in the top 10 most promoted fruits at number 7 this week. See the USDA Data on Retail Mango Ads chart below for detailed data by geographic region of the country. Stores on ad on organic mangoes rose from 574 stores to 1,028 stores at an average price of $1.11 per piece.

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