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Mango and Lime Crop Update and Forecast - Week 18

Lime update

After a healthy Cinco de Mayo pull, the demand has flattened some in the US. Mexico's Labor Day proved to be difficult for crossings mid-week, but supplies are coming across heavy today and through the end of the week to help fulfill the slight dip in supplies. Mexico markets are being very bullish due to the start of the European pull, however, the US market has not gotten in step with their pricing. The US importers expect the market to remain the same into next week with the above pricing. Quality has been good, with a small amount of blanching on the limes. Retailers are starting to plan for Memorial Day ads and the outlook is positive for heavy ads for the end of May. Large limes will continue to be tight until June.

Mango Crop Update

We are in week 18 now. The market is under pressure with two consecutive weeks of almost 4 million boxes arriving to the US. Prices have come down significantly and there is a very wide range of quotes in the market with a lot of consignment and discount fruit available. Receivers who can take ripe fruit or cosmetic issue fruit can find great deals.

The total volume of mangoes will drop over the next few weeks. Our forecast is below in the Arrival Volume Chart. Two of the four pack houses in Guatemala will shut down by this weekend and the season will trail off. Oaxaca and Chiapas are slowing down in Mexico with quality suffering. Michoacán is in full peak now with Tommies but winding down with Hadens and Honeys (Ataulfos). Kents are starting to pack next week. The month of May will gradually tighten on round fruit until Nayarit and Sinaloa fruit are ready to pick. We expect sizes 9s and 10s to be the peak on round fruit in the coming weeks. See the Mexican Mango Crop Sizing Charts below for the last four weeks sizing breakdown. Ataulfos should shift more to smaller fruit in the coming weeks.

For Retailers looking to plan out mango promotions for the summertime, we foresee week 25 (June 18th) through week 30 (July 29) as the peak of the Mexican mango season.

Stores on ad on conventional mangoes declined from 11,409 stores to 7,605 stores on ad for the week ending 5/03/18. Weighted average retail price is $0.92 per piece. See the USDA Data on Retail Mango Ads chart below for detailed data by geographic region of the country. Stores on ad with Organic mangoes doubled from 832 stores to 1,664 stores this week. Average Organic price was at $1.31 per piece.

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