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Mango and Lime Crop Update and Forecast - Week 23

Lime update

Heavy rains in Vera Cruz have slowed lime inbounds for the time being. There seems to be a brief reprieve for a few days before the rains start again. The rains will help the sizing, however, with high heat we may start seeing some quality issues such as oil spotting and styler. Demand is starting to increase as summer gets started. Fourth of July should be a great time to promote with volume ads. Organic limes are in good supply, with most volume being concentrated on 200/230s. Growers/Packers are sending more fruit into the West Coast in order to optimize pricing returns. 110s are still limited but buyers have a good option if they can substitute 150s.

Mango Crop Update

We finished week 23 yesterday and are starting week 24 today. Volume exceeded expectation significantly this week and was on track to finish around 3.5 million boxes. The market price is holding quite well to this point which does not seem logical with such a large increase in volume the last two weeks. We are even hearing of rising field prices for the Kents which are coming into season now from Nayarit and Sinaloa with competition from the frozen and dry mango sectors. Kents are the preferred variety for these sectors due to superior flavor and the larger sizing versus the Tommies from the same regions which are running extremely small on size. The weather has been brutally hot and dry for many weeks now. Rivers and reservoirs are dry. If rain does not come soon, we could see some problems. The fruit already has a bit of sunburn showing a yellow pigmentation on the top of the shoulder of the fruit. Without water, sizing could remain small. The fruit could not “plump up” and stay with a flatter shape. The fruit could mature much faster both on the tree and after picking. The harvest could come on much quicker and end the season of southern Sinaloa by mid-July where last year it extended through August and overlapped greatly with Northern Sinaloa (Los Mochis) which goes through September.

Optimistically, there is rain forecasted for Nayarit/Sinaloa this week due to a tropical storm of the coast in the pacific. We need this rain, so keep your fingers crossed. Sizing is our huge challenge now with 8s and larger expected to stay tight, especially when Michoacán declines on Kents which should have just passed their peak. We see a great opportunity to promote size 12s and 10s for the rest of June and early July as things stand now. We need to see how the rains come to see any further into the future than that.

Quality has been good in general all season, but Ataulfo quality from the main region of Nayarit is now challenging. They have good volume and the fruit has good flavor, but the grade out losses due to skin staining are very high. The discoloration can come up as the fruit ripens after packing as well creating a very high risk investment to buy fruit at field level.

Northern Sinaloa reportedly has excellent volume on Ataulfos starting at the end of June. Kents are said to have a lower production than last year due to poor flowering and Keitts are said to be just slightly down. With new acreage coming into production each year and younger fields reaching the prime years, we are not convinced the overall volume will be lower. Last year Northern Sinaloa shipped 35% more than projected.

Stores on ad on conventional mangoes decreased from 10,136 stores to 8,483 stores on ad for the week ending 6/16/18. Weighted average retail price is $0.90 per piece. See the USDA

Data on Retail Mango Ads chart below for detailed data by geographic region of the country. Stores on ad with Organic mangoes dropped from 761 stores to 682 stores this week. Average Organic price was at $1.29 per piece.

Retailers, get ready for the Mango Mania Display Contest in July. Here is a link for more information:

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