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Mango and Lime Crop Update and Forecast - Week 30

Lime Update

Lime prices are up despite a 13% increase in volume from week 28 to 29. Lime volume for the past couple of days is slightly down compared to the same days last week. High grade out losses and an expected short term reduction in supplies is contributing the increase in price. The extremely tight and expensive yellow lemon

market is helping the lime market as well. We are seeing some retailers decrease shelf space on lemons and fill that space with limes due to the good availability and price. Lime sizing is still running larger with most manifests heavy on 110/150s. Trading is strong on 175s/200s/230s. Mexican packers are saying there will be a decrease in availability for the next two weeks. After August 15th, the industry should look to promote limes once again as the new crop will come into volume. We would like to offer ad volumes and pricing for your ads loading after August 15th. Stores on ad on conventional limes decreased from 2,241 stores to 1,859 stores on ad for the week ending 7/27/18. Weighted average retail price is $0.25 per piece.

Mango Crop Update

We are in week 30 now. Mango crossings increased in week 29 after a two week slow down that was the result of a low market price. As inventories cleaned up and the market price improved packers resumed heavy packing. As you can see in the Arrival Volume Chart below, as Yellow mango volumes drop off rapidly, the round mango volume (Kent and Keitt) is expected to increase to the 2.5 – 2.9 million box level now through mid-August. That is a large volume of “round only” mangoes that will need promotion across multiple sizes through mid-August. Volumes are expected to drop in late August when Southern Sinaloa will close most pack houses and only Northern Sinaloa will remain shipping. At that time you can expect almost all of the fruit in the market to be of very large size, 8s and larger.

Quality remains solid and flavor amazing. It has been a great Mexican season for excellent tasting mangoes across all varieties and the late season is usually the best so the best is yet to come.

Organic Kent mangoes are in an oversupply situation with most of the volume needing to be packed as conventional just to be able to be moved. For any retailer considering an ad or in-store special in the near term, organics could be arranged for a very modest premium over conventional pricing.

We have added a new chart below showing a 21 Day look back of mango loads crossing from Mexico by day and crossing point. This is useful because the EMEX (HWT) data only gives part of the picture. The non-hot water treated fruit from Northern Sinaloa does not report through EMEX but it is captured in the crossing volume. By doing the math we can see that Northern Sinaloa alone is approaching the one million box per week mark.

Stores on ad on conventional mangoes rose from 7,956 stores to 10,763 stores on ad for the week ending 7/27/18. Weighted average retail price is $0.86 per piece. Mangoes remained in the top 10 most promoted fruit this week. See the USDA Data on Retail Mango Ads chart below for detailed data by geographic region of the country. Stores on ad with Organic mangoes fell from 1,151 stores to 782 stores this week. Average Organic price was at $1.27 per piece.

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