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Mango and Lime Crop Update and Forecast - Week 40

Lime Update

Heavy inbounds of over 600 loads for the past two weeks have created a softening in the market. This coupled with slow sales have importers scrambling to create movement before the limes mature in the warehouse. Lime growers in Mexico fight for higher prices due to heavy losses during grading at the packhouse. Daily heavy rains are bringing the limes to maturity faster and causing the pack out levels to be lower than desired. Mexico is doing a good job of sending quality to the US and this is holding the market on 175s and larger at good pricing. 230s seem to be the most optimal size for promotions. Ads are heavier this week versus prior weeks, indicating that shippers are finding good outlets for smaller sizes. The quality is still good enough to continue these promotions. There is still some concern for later in the month and supply availability. The harvest is heavier due to the early maturation, so it may cause some issues on supplies for late October/early November. Organics are coming down slowly in price, but are still very high compared to the conventional option. We have not seen this diminish demand and quality is holding steady. Inbounds thus far this week are lower than last week, which could help steady the falling prices by next week. We feel it depends on quality and demand. Stores on ad on conventional limes rose from 1,521 stores to 1,844 stores on ad for the week ending 10/06/18. Weighted average retail price is $0.29 per piece. See the USDA Data on Retail Mango Ads chart below for detailed data by geographic region of the country. Stores on ad with Organic limes remained steady at 130 stores. Average Organic price was at $0.33 per piece.


Mango Crop Update

We are in week 40 now. Mexico came with more fruit than was expected last week in a final push, but all but one pack house is now closed with that one most likely finishing this weekend. The volume numbers we are using for Mexico are taken from the USDA crossing volumes and are in sharp contrast to what is reported by the Northern Sinaloa growers association. We choose to believe the USDA crossing numbers although there can be errors and corrections after the fact with their reporting as well. Our Brazil numbers could vary slightly from other official sources because we are accounting for containers that get left behind at the port due to overbooking on vessels and then ship on the following vessel.

The market on Brazilian Tommies is feeling downward pressure due to the recent high prices. Promotions are needed for the coming weeks and can be locked in at prices much lower than the current spot market quotes. We have heavy volume available to commit. Peak sizing is 9s/10s with good availability on 8s and 12s as well. Quality and appearance are excellent. We will have volume available to commit to ads for the foreseeable future. The spot market could stay strong or drop in the coming weeks depending on the ad activity. If ads come in strong the spot market availability could be tight, but if mango ads are very few, the spot market could fall significantly. The best way to lock in a good price and availability is to commit now for week 42 and 43 ads. We see the volume continuing to rise throughout the fall with no let up until mid-late December arrivals.

Mexican Mangoes are still available this week in Nogales. Sizing will be 5/6/7 and a few 8s. Please call. We would love to fill your needs with the final Mexican mangoes of the season.

Stores on ad on conventional mangoes rose from 1,888 stores to 2,848 stores on ad for the week ending 10/06/18. Weighted average retail price is $1.11 per piece. See the USDA Data on Retail Mango Ads chart below for detailed data by geographic region of the country. Stores on ad with Organic mangoes fell from 55 stores to 40 stores this week. Average Organic price was at $1.81 per piece.

We hope to see you at the Mango Industry Meeting during PMA. It will be 6:30 - 8:30pm at the Rosen Centre Hotel on Friday October 19th in Orlando.














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