Mango and Lime Crop Update and Forecast - Week 8



Lime Update

The lime market and supplies continue to do the opposite of what growers and packers in Mexico try to convince us is happening. Just when there seems to be broad consensus that the supplies are tightening and the market is rising, over 700 loads cross from 2/10 to 2/16 and the market gets long and prices stagnate. It just appears the cycle of growers holding back, speculating and demanding higher prices has again led to a backup of fruit that got harvested and shipped to relieve the backup. This cycle continues with growers now wanting more money in Mexico than the US market selling price will support. I assume the cycle will repeat itself again. The growers expectations of price are very high for March. Sizing is still running very large, due to the growers holding back and the fruit sizing up. Quality in general is very good right now. Please run promo and spot opportunities by us. There are 1,731 stores on ad on limes for the week ending 2/21 at an average retail price of $0.34 per unit and 254 stores on ad at an average of $0.70 per pound. . There were 42 stores on organic lime ads at an average retail of $2.70lb.




Mango Crop Update

We are in week 8 now. Round mango volumes are falling out of Peru as yellow mango volumes are building out of Mexico. The Peru regions of Piura and Motupe are done packing. The fruit packed going forward will come from the Casma region, but the Casma field prices are so high it would require an $8.50 selling price here in the states to make sense to bring the Kents from Casma. This fruit typically goes to Europe but with the market this strong in the USA, we will receive some of this fruit. Quality and flavor remain excellent on the Peru fruit. There is a trucker strike in Peru that started Monday. We are uncertain how long it will last and the effect it will have on loading this week and next, but there was nearly a 100 container backlog of treated but unshipped fruit after week 6 packing, so we believe the volumes we project below are safe and could be higher if the strike is quickly resolved. Arrival volumes are coming off quickly on the west coast as you can see in the Ocean Container Arrivals by Port chart below.

Mexican volumes have been running below the 5 year average so for this week and next I have put a lower estimate in yellow in the Arrival Volume Chart. Mexican mango quality has not been good up to this point, but should see improvement going forward. The first flowerings were heavily rained on but the fruit being harvested going forward should improve. Ataulfo (Honey) mangoes will be the promotable volume variety for the next 4 or 5 weeks. until Mexico and Guatemala get ramped up on Tommies. Oaxaca will start slowly with Tommies packing this week and build each week. Michoacán is very delayed in general on rounds with little volume expected until the end of March.

Guatemala will certify the first pack house this week and pack a few Ataulfos but no volume of round mangos is expected to arrive until week 12 or 13 at the earliest..

Stores on ad on conventional mangos decreased from 6,961 stores to 3,974 stores on ad for the week ending 2/21. Weighted average retail price is $1.16 per piece. See the USDA Data on Retail Mango Ads chart below for detailed data by geographic region of the country. Stores on ad on organic mangoes decreased from 1,238 stores to 282 stores at an average price of $1.72 per piece.


Please check out the pictures of our first Mexican Ataulfos and our Peru Kents below.

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