Mango and Lime Crop Update and Forecast - Week 25

Lime Update

Mexican lime volumes rose from 534 truckloads week ending 6/8 to 880 truckloads for the week ending Saturday 6/15. This was a massive increase as was expected after the weather cleared up following a couple of weeks of rain. Weather in Veracruz is forecasted to be nice the rest of the week so we expect volumes to continue heavy. Prices are cheap and you can always find somebody cheaper but quality is the key to success with these summer limes. Diligent grading out of skin defects followed by an effective forced air cooling to stabilize and give a long shelf life is the key to putting up a premium pack. Not everyone has the technique or the forced air system to accomplish this. Sizing is concentrating in the 175s and 200s with 110s and 250s being light on the manifests. Fruit is moving well but supplies are heavy. We would like to commit to ads so please include us in you ad quoting and run opportunities by us.

The number of stores on ad on limes rose from 1,982 last week to 2,788 stores for the week ending 6/20 at an average retail price of $0.25 per unit. There were also 341 stores on ad at an average of $0.43 per pound. There was only one store on an organic lime ad at 50 cents per each reported by the USDA specialty crop market news survey of more than 400 retailers.

Mango Crop Update

We are in week 25 now. Kent variety mango volumes are booming and Kents will be the main variety going forward until mid-August when Keitts become the main variety to finish the season. See the Arrival Volume Chart below. Volumes of ‘Round only’ mangos reached almost 3 million boxes per week last week and are expected to stay there for the next 2 months! The flavor of the Kents is amazing. We expect this to drive strong repeat purchase behavior as it usually does. Prices are cheap, volumes are heavy, sizing is improving, and quality is fantastic. The next 2 months are perfect for heavy mango promotions on Kents and Keitts.

Honey Mangos (Ataulfos) are past the peak and starting to fall in volume quickly in the main region of Nayarit but just starting to pack in Northern Sinaloa. See the pics of the first non-hot water treated Ataulfos being packed below. These will start arriving over the weekend.

Please plan to carry a jumbo size round mangos 5s/6s/7s (PLU 3114 or 3488) as an additional SKU when we get into the Keitts in late July through September.

See pics below of our main mango Labels and note the 24Lb Display Pack that improves stability, ripening performance, and reduces labor at the DC and store level.

Stores on ad on conventional mangos fell from 10,612 stores to 7,483 stores on ad for the week ending 6/20. Weighted average retail price was $0.92 per piece. Stores on organic mango ads fell from 1,822 last week to 448 stores this week with an average retail price of $1.43 each. This average retail price is a mix of Round and Honey Mangoes which tend to have smaller sizing. The USDA unfortunately does not separate round and yellow mangoes in the retail ad data. See the USDA Data on Retail Mango Ads chart below for detailed data by geographic region of the country.

We are making a trip to India next week to research Indian mango opportunities. Please contact us if you are interested in looking at a premium variety program.

Mango and Lime Crop Update and Forecast - Week 18

Lime Update

The lime market has fallen drastically on small sizes and large sizes just are not very available. Overall volume has surged from around the 500 load per week level to the 700 load level over the last 7 days reported. Often when lime volumes surge, the crossings data seems to come over delayed and then get revised upward a day or two later. That is why we are only reporting through Tuesday of this week. There has been no rain for many weeks in Veracruz and this is why the sizing is so small. Color is deep green and the skin is thick giving good shelf life, but juice content is low due to the lack of rain. The opportunity for retailers the coming month is in the smallest sizes which will have drastically lower prices such as 230s/250s/275s. If those sizes are just not going to work I would suggest using a 17/2 Lb. bag lime to push sales. Of course it will have the smaller limes in it but with a bag it doesn’t really matter. Please run ad opportunities by us. We have excellent supplies and quality on organic limes as well. We are looking for programs on organic limes.

The number of stores on ad on limes rose from 672 last week to 1,324 stores for the week ending 5/2 at an average retail price of $0.35 per unit. There were zero stores on organic lime ads.

Mango Crop Update

We are ending week 18 today. Mexican mango volume surged this week and we have finally hit the first 500,000 box days of packing We expect to be in the 3- 4 million box per week range now to stay for the next 3 months. Peak season is here. The time is right to promote both Round and Yellow mangos. Prices have fallen significantly across the board and there are very sharp promotional prices available on 10s/12s/14s in round mangos and reasonable prices on Honey mangos as well. See the Arrival Volume Chart below which shows the projected arrival volume split between round and yellow varieties. We will be at consistently high volumes of each for the foreseeable future. Organic round mangos are in great supply as well.

Guatemala is winding down as Mexico enters the high season with 7 states producing at the same time. Oaxaca has seen 2 consecutive days of rain which may speed the end of that season. With Oaxaca going out the only place to get a good amount of large sizes will be in Michoacán where the Kents should start picking next week. We expect pricing to be at a premium for large Kents versus Tommy and Haden. Chiapas is still going strong on Honey mangos since it has not rained yet but starting week 20 the volumes will come down regardless. Nayarit, which is a strong Honey (Ataulfo) and Tommy region is just starting and will ramp up volume quickly. The Nayarit Ataulfos are reported to be generally large in size while the Tommys are expected to peak on 10s then 12s. Sinaloa should start picking strong on Kents about week 23/24. Current week packing is running 28% Ataulfo (Honey), 64% Tommy Atkins, 8% Haden.

Please see the pics of our Haitian Madame Francis mangos below. We are carrying these in New Jersey and are looking for retailers to open the code to carry this amazing tasting mango with its own PLU code (PLU 3621)

Mangos were the 4th most promoted fruit nationwide this past week. Stores on ad on conventional mangos increased from 4,013 stores to 10,929 stores on ad for the week ending 5/2. Weighted average retail price is $0.99 per piece. This average retail price is a mix of Round and Honey Mangoes which tend to have smaller sizing. The USDA unfortunately does not separate round and yellow mangoes in the retail ad data. See the USDA Data on Retail Mango Ads chart below for detailed data by geographic region of the country. Stores on ad on organic mangoes increased from 752 stores to 792 stores at an average price of $1.72 per piece.

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Mango and Lime Crop Update and Forecast - Week 16

Lime Update

The lime market is difficult to predict. Weeks ago everyone believed there was a massive amount of limes on the trees and the market was bound to collapse soon. We are still waiting. The new crop is coming off now with mostly very small sizing so the price is much lower on small limes than large. The Mexican market has been pulling strong due to the coming Easter Holiday which has reduced exports to the USA. We know there will be a packing slow down starting Thursday through Easter Sunday due to Easter. When picking and packing resumes after Easter we feel like the collapse will come but first with small sizes. See below the massive volume dip the market took one week ago when volume dropped 201 loads from one week to the next. This was unexpected and to a large degree a speculative market created by growers not picking and holding out for the price they wanted. We expect the shoe to be on the other foot by week 18 with growers needing to move product.

The number of stores on ad on limes fell from 583 last week to 467 stores for the week ending 4/18 at an average retail price of $0.32 per unit. There were also 81 stores on ad at an average of $1.20 per pound. There were zero stores on organic lime ads.

Mango Crop Update

We are in week 16 now. We have not seen mango volumes rise as much as expected in Mexico. The temperatures have been cool causing fruit not to develop as fast as expected. The fruit is also not sizing up as we hoped. This is true for Guatemala as well. With the market oversupplied and selling very cheap on sizes 12s and 14s, and the spot market very strong on sizes 10s and larger, there is a large imbalance in the market. It is difficult for a packer or importer to get enough large size fruit without getting overloaded on 12s and 14s. We need promotions on 12s/14s Tommy and to switch some demand from large fruit to small. We see this situation persisting with an overload of small sizes and a tight market on large fruit until either some major ads on small fruit clean up the market or the fruit sizing shifts larger.

Guatemala seems to have come off the peak very fast and will end with much lower volume than last year. They are saying the main reason is simply that the fruit will not size up and they can’t send 12s/14s to the market without losing money. The state of Oaxaca is the main supply of larger fruit in Mexico and they are passing the peak now. It is concerning that the large fruit supply will go down from where we are today when Oaxaca fades away in May. In summary, the big opportunity for promotions is on size 12s/14s in the next few weeks. Please push those sizes if you can now through May. The true peak of the Mexican mango season on round mangos will come when Nayarit and Sinaloa are both in full swing from mid-June through mid-August. Please plan to take advantage of that window which also brings the premium eating varieties like Kents and Kietts.

Honey Mangos (Ataulfos) are in good supply with excellent quality and flavor. We see strong overall volumes on Honeys for the foreseeable future. Now is the time to promote up through June. The availability falls quickly on Honeys as we get into July.

Stores on ad on conventional mangos increased from 5,664 stores to 8,984 stores on ad for the week ending 4/18. Weighted average retail price is $0.85per piece. This average retail price is a mix of Round and Honey Mangoes which tend to have smaller sizing. The USDA unfortunately does not separate round and yellow mangoes in the retail ad data. See the USDA Data on Retail Mango Ads chart below for detailed data by geographic region of the country. Stores on ad on organic mangoes increased from 390 stores to 437 stores at an average price of $1.69 per piece.

Come see us at Booth #50 at Viva Fresh in San Antonio on Saturday April 27th.

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