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Mango and Lime Crop Update and Forecast - Week 27

Lime Update


Inbounds have increased by 28% over the last 7 days and this is causing a little movement in the market. Demand was good through last week for the 4th of July Holiday, but has been stagnant today as most orders have been already fulfilled or placed. Sizing structure is peaking on 200/175. We have seen good quality coming across with the main concern being some lighter color. This is expected as summer limes are normally lighter in color, but much juicier. European and Asiatic pull is still very strong in Mexico with higher prices than the US and are pulling most premium, dark green limes. Organics volume is increasing and prices are coming down. Key limes are steady with no issues in supplies. Weather in Mexico is expected to be wet this week, but we do not anticipate any issues with supplies.


Mango Crop Update

We are in week 27 now. Week 26 broke the 4 million box mark in total mango volume assuming the report of approximately 200,000 boxes shipping from Northern Sinaloa in the first week of packing is accurate. See the Arrival Volume Chart below for a view of all regions shipping and the breakdown of round and yellow varieties. Also see the Mexican Mango Crop Sizing charts below. The crop currently has a healthy balance of sizing from 6s to 12s in rounds and 12s to 20s in Ataulfo (Honey Mango). The market is stagnant and oversupplied. Deals are widely available for those who can pull the trigger and move volume. Quality is fantastic. Now is the time to maximize sales.

We have reached the peak of the Hot Water Treated (HWT) Volume per week and that volume will start to recede as Jalisco, Nayarit, and Michoacán start to fade. Southern Sinaloa is entering its peak and Northern Sinaloa (Zona Libre) is just starting. Southern Sinaloa has two flowerings of Kents. We are in the peak of the first flowering now. The flavor is amazing. We are seeing brix on arrival of 12-16 and perfect internal color. Growers say that the very dry conditions concentrate the flavor. In my opinion, this Kent fruit is the best tasting mango we will have all year. These brix levels are high compared to anything we have seen recently. The second flowering of Kents and the Keitts will start week 29. Note that we expect to stay in the 3 million boxes of round mango range for the next 5 weeks even as the Honeys (Ataulfo) wind down the season.

Northern Sinaloa started last week and the first Ataulfos look very good. See the pictures below. Sizing is reportedly large but because Northern Sinaloa does not yet report data like EMEX for the HWT plants, we only have our manifests and grower feedback to guide us . Northern Sinaloa has plenty of water and can use it to hold up the start of the round mangoes by watering heavily now until the south’s volume starts to fall. The quality looks great on the trees, but the sizing is most likely going to be very large, as usual, so expect lots Kent/Keitt 5s and 6s for mid-August until the end of the deal.

Brazil is now about 7 weeks out from first arrivals. Brazilian growers have had 3 consecutive poor starts to their season due to competition from the late Mexican Keitts resulting in below break-even pricing. Therefore they have, in general, stopped pushing for early fruit. The volume should be very light until mid-September arrivals. We will have Air-Shipped Ataulfos from Brazil starting about week 34 when the Mexican Ataulfos should be completely finished. We are looking to increase volume on the Ataulfos this season to optimize the logistics. We brought 2-3 loads per week last season with logistical challenges but with amazing flavor. There are very few Ataulfo (Honey) mangoes available in Brazil so to increase volume we need to bring more of the 20/22 count that is available. Since this is the only Ataulfo mango deal available until Ecuador arrives in October, we are looking to find retail partners who want the fruit and can make the program viable with the higher cost of air-freight. Please contact us if you would like to carry the Honey, or Ataulfo, mango during this week 34 – 40 timeframe.

Stores on ad on conventional mangoes fell drastically from 9,184 stores to 5,002 stores on ad for the week ending 7/7/18. Weighted average retail price is $0.91 per piece. See the USDA Data on Retail Mango Ads chart below for detailed data by geographic region of the country. Stores on ad with Organic mangoes fell from 943 stores to 500 stores this week. Average Organic price was at $1.43 per piece. We hope and expect the ad numbers to increase in July with the kickoff of the National Mango Board’s mango display contest. Here is a link for more information. http://www.mango.org/professionals/retail/mango-mania-display-contest/












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