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Mango and Lime Crop Update and Forecast - Week 38/39

Lime Update

It has been raining steadily in Veracruz which is exactly what the lime trees need to start recovering from the drought. The flush of fruit we saw a couple of weeks ago seems to be dying down now with the 21 day look back showing volumes dropping from 769 loads to 626 loads to 493 loads the last 7 days with volume reported. The new flowering we are seeing now indicates supplies will be good again around December or January. Unfortunately the trees were so weakened by the summer drought that the flowering was extremely poor for production in mid-October and November. There will be extremely low volume of production during this time frame. Get ready for a crazy high market on limes.

The lime market is always volatile and ranges greatly with quality. Quality is poor in general but getting better. Overall crop size distribution is still very small (230s/250s). With commitments on larger limes, grower/packers and importers struggle to get the volume they need on the big sizes without getting overloaded on the small sizes. Try to use the smallest limes you can to find the best value.

The number of stores on ad on limes fell from an already low 355 last week to 256 stores for the week ending 9/16 at an average retail price of $0.61 per unit, nearly doubling in price. There were zero stores on an organic lime ads according to the USDA specialty crop market news survey of more than 400 retailers.

Mango Crop Update

We are starting week 39 today. Mexican volumes continued strong through week 38 averaging 48 loads per day for the last 7 days through the 19th. We expect the Mexican crossings to drop off very fast going forward as indicated in the Arrival Volume Chart below. Brazil will start a 5 week peak of arrivals with the vessel on October 4th. Peak sizing is well split between 8s, 9s, and 10s. External Blush and internal color are good and eating quality is good for a Tommy variety. For premium tasting fruit, Brazil is sending some Keitt mango to arrive starting next Friday October 4th. Supplies will be very limited so please try to book in advance on Keitts from Brazil. The Brazil air Ataulfo season ended last week with the last arrival. Ecuador is a week or two away from packing properly mature Ataulfo mango.

We can support ad volumes in all sizes from 7s through 12s starting with our arrival of October 4th. So please contact us for your mango promotional needs for loading weeks 41 through week 44. We expect supplies to become tight again in the transition from Brazil to Ecuador in weeks 45, 46, 47 due to the delay in flowering and the cool weather in Ecuador. See the far right side of the Arrival Volume Chart and notice how the “Total Round Mango Boxes all COO’s” bottoms out in those weeks by the projections we currently have from Brazil and Ecuador. We then expect a pronounced peak of arrivals in weeks 48, 49, and 50. Please plan post-Thanksgiving mango ads. We are going to need them.

Stores on ad on conventional mangos fell from 2,794 stores to 1,884 stores on ad for the week ending 9/19. Weighted average retail price rose to $1.24 per piece. Stores on organic mango ads fell from 156 last week to 100 stores this coming week with an average retail price rising to $3.02 each. See the USDA Data on Retail Mango Ads chart below for detailed data by geographic region of the country.

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