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Mango and Lime Crop Update and Forecast - Week 43

Lime Update

Lime inbound volume has decreased about 25 percent over the last 7 days versus the previous seven days. There have been steady rains in most lime growing regions. Not very heavy rains but enough that many fields are not able to drain. The rains are still forecasted to continue through the weekend. Besides the logistical problems of getting tractors and people into the fields, this rain causes limes to quickly swell. As the lime expands, the skin becomes smooth and thinner, will turn yellow quickly, and will have a lower shelf life. The number of stores on lime ads increased from 1,129 to 1,818 stores for the week ending 10/26. The average retail price was $0.26 per piece.

Mango Crop Update

We are in week 43 now. The demand for mangoes seemed to bottom out during the PMA convention week, last week, but is showing signs of strength so far this week. Overall volume is going to remain relatively steady for weeks 43, 44, 45 with a shift to smaller sizes as Ecuador transitions in and Brazil fades out. Arrival volumes will be spread between many more ports with Ecuador versus everything arriving in the Northeast with Brazil. There will be a strong volume peak of arrivals for Ecuador from week 46 through 49 where we foresee a large concentration of volume on the size 12s. The industry will need a lot of aggressive (2-for-$1.00 type) promotions to move the peak volume of size 12s for these weeks. Although it does not leave profit for the grower after all the costs, the industry needs to book ads on 12s in the $4.25-$4.50 range to allow retailers the ability to get to retail prices that get consumers to “impulse” buy. The outlook on 9s and larger is quite different. The small sizing thus far in Ecuador has most importers worried about covering commitments on those sizes a couple of weeks out.

Quality and appearance has been exceptional on Brazil Tommies this season with no reason to think it will change. Higher maturity is to be expected toward the end of the season as always. With the Spanish Osteen mango season still going strong in Europe, we had received a good volume of Palmer, Kents and Keitts that Brazil diverted to the US instead of Europe. See Pictures below of the Keitts. The Palmer has a different shape with a pointy stem end as in the picture below. Once you get past the different shape, it has a beautiful red blush and a better taste and texture than a Tommy, so we hope customers will try this variety. It is considered a premium variety in all other markets.

Ecuador Ataulfos are not as clean as in years past, but are improving each week in appearance and taste. Sizing is very small. Book well in advance as the demand exceeds supply. Organic Haden and Tommy mango has started but sizing is mostly 12/14 count. See pics of the Haden below.

Ecuador Kents and Keitts will begin arriving in decent volume around week 47/48.

Stores on ad on conventional mangoes increased from 2,598 stores to 3,243 stores on ad for the week ending 10/26/18. Weighted average retail price is $1.13 per piece. See the USDA Data on Retail Mango Ads chart below for detailed data by geographic region of the country. Stores on ad with Organic mangoes rose from 0 stores to 19 stores this week. Average Organic price was at $1.50 per piece.

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