Mango and Lime Crop Update and Forecast - Week 41

Lime Update

The 21 day Mexican Lime Crossings Chart below shows supply volume going from 480 loads up to 627 loads and further up to 637 loads the last 7 days. We believe there is a drop in production to come but the discussion, or difference of opinion, between sources is when this shortage will begin. Some say week 43 and others say as late as week 46. What they agree on is that the crop we are currently picking has much less fruit behind it as a result of the drought in the summer causing the flowering and fruit set to be very poor. Sizing is still peaking on 200/230. Quality has improved further which was needed. When the shortage hits it will be much easier to find small limes than large limes, which is nothing new, but it should be very pronounced and drive a massive price difference between 230s and smaller and 200s and larger.

The number of stores on ad on limes rose from 333 last week to 454 stores for the week ending 10/10 at an average retail price of $0.25 per unit. There were also 97 stores on ad by the pound at an average price of $0.72 per pound. There were 109 stores on an organic lime ads at an avg. retail of 0.69 each according to the USDA specialty crop market news survey of more than 400 retailers.

Mango Crop Update

We are in week 41. We are in the peak arrival weeks of the Brazilian mango season now and the next 3 weeks. Our heaviest availability will be on size 7s and 8s. 8s is the peak size overall. Sizes 9s and 10s have strong, steady demand, but sizes 7s and 8s are still being held back by the lingering Mexican fruit supplying many fresh cut processors. See the Brazil Mango Size Breakdown Chart below. Size 12s and 14s are generally undersupplied. Quality ranges from borderline to truly exceptional on the appearance of the fruit. We have plenty of fruit for promotion immediately on 6s, 7s, and 8s. Call us if you are looking to move mangos!

The first Brazilian Keitts have arrived. See the picture of a 6 count Keitt below. Keitts are the best way to go for eating quality right now even though they don’t always have the fantastic appearance of the Tommy. Availability is very limited, but call if interested. Also please see our “Bella” label Tommy Atkins in the picture below. It is a fantastic looking box and pallet in my heavily biased opinion.

Ecuador’s first organic Tommy should arrive week 44. We will update if they get packed and out next week to stay on track. Ataulfos are on the water now. See the initial size breakdown below. We are hopeful the sizing will stay this way as it is bigger in general than recent years.

Stores on ad on conventional mangos dropped from 3,464 stores to 1,359 stores on ad for the week ending 10/10. Weighted average retail price was $1.32 per piece. Stores on organic mango ads rose from 32 last week to 85 stores this week with an average retail price of $1.59 each. See the USDA Data on Retail Mango Ads chart below for detailed data by geographic region of the country.

Mango and Lime Crop Update and Forecast - Week 40

Lime Update

The 21 day Mexican Lime Crossings Chart below shows a volatile supply volume going from 703 loads down to 480 loads and back up to 626 loads the last 7 days. There have been rains over the past week in the lime growing regions which is good news for the drought weakened trees and this will help strengthen the crop to come in December. Sizing is getting a little better with the peak moving from 230/250 to 200/230. Demand seams steady. We expect about 2 more weeks of 500 – 600 loads of lime crossing from Mexico per week before the dip in production that we have been talking about Mid-October through November really hits and where we expect the volumes to drop significantly lower. The market is wide ranging on price just like the quality ranges greatly by packer. With a weaker quality crop it pays to go with the shippers that really invest the time and expense into precooling the fruit very well after packing before loading it onto trucks. Limes that are properly stabilized after packing have a greatly increased shelf life and present fewer problems down the road. This is what we strive to do, to not give quality and condition headaches to customers.

The number of stores on ad on limes rose from 256 last week to 33 stores for the week ending 10/3 at an average retail price of $0.33 per unit. There were also 81 stores on ad by the pound at an average price of $0.78 per pound. There were zero stores on an organic lime ads according to the USDA specialty crop market news survey of more than 400 retailers.

Mango Crop Update

We are in week 40 now. Most packers in Northern Sinaloa, Mexico shut down last week but there will continue to be crossings and inventory of Jumbo Keitt mangos available for another couple of weeks. Brazil is now entering the peak arrival phase of their season which will be the entire month of October. The market was very undersupplied on sizes 8s, 9s, 10s, 12s for the past two weeks but with the last vessel we got some of these regular chain store size mangos into the pipeline and now we have the peak vessel of the season about to hit this Friday, so we will be stable with plenty of supplies the rest of the month. We can do volume ads on sizes 7s, 8s, 9s, 10s all of October. We need ads on size 6s/7s/8s as soon as possible. Size 12s have not been very prevalent so far running only 6.03% of our manifests as you can see in the Brazil Mango Size Breakdown Chart below.

We have a small volume of Palmer and Keitt mango from Brazil for those interested in a premium eating experience or differentiation from Tommy Atkins variety. Organic mangos are in a gap now between Mexico and Ecuador. Brazil does not export organic mango to the USA so the only organics available are California Keitts which are basically committed as we understand. Ecuador’s first organic Tommy should arrive week 44.

We have updated projections for Ecuador in the Arrival Volume Chart below. These new projection have an earlier ramp up than they projected last week which is good news as the supply forecast looks better for early November than our chart last week. Loading in week 47 looks to be the start of peak arrivals from Ecuador so we would like to run big promotions for loading weeks 47 – 52. Ataulfos have started arriving from Ecuador. Be careful as they might be immature. Our growers are starting to pick now so we should have the first mature Ataulfos arriving in week 42.

Stores on ad on conventional mangos rose from 1,884 stores to 3,464 stores on ad for the week ending 10/3. Weighted average retail price was $1.11 per piece. Stores on organic mango ads fell from 100 last week to 32 stores this week with an average retail price of $3.15 each. See the USDA Data on Retail Mango Ads chart below for detailed data by geographic region of the country.

Mango and Lime Crop Update and Forecast - Week 38/39

Lime Update

It has been raining steadily in Veracruz which is exactly what the lime trees need to start recovering from the drought. The flush of fruit we saw a couple of weeks ago seems to be dying down now with the 21 day look back showing volumes dropping from 769 loads to 626 loads to 493 loads the last 7 days with volume reported. The new flowering we are seeing now indicates supplies will be good again around December or January. Unfortunately the trees were so weakened by the summer drought that the flowering was extremely poor for production in mid-October and November. There will be extremely low volume of production during this time frame. Get ready for a crazy high market on limes.

The lime market is always volatile and ranges greatly with quality. Quality is poor in general but getting better. Overall crop size distribution is still very small (230s/250s). With commitments on larger limes, grower/packers and importers struggle to get the volume they need on the big sizes without getting overloaded on the small sizes. Try to use the smallest limes you can to find the best value.

The number of stores on ad on limes fell from an already low 355 last week to 256 stores for the week ending 9/16 at an average retail price of $0.61 per unit, nearly doubling in price. There were zero stores on an organic lime ads according to the USDA specialty crop market news survey of more than 400 retailers.

Mango Crop Update

We are starting week 39 today. Mexican volumes continued strong through week 38 averaging 48 loads per day for the last 7 days through the 19th. We expect the Mexican crossings to drop off very fast going forward as indicated in the Arrival Volume Chart below. Brazil will start a 5 week peak of arrivals with the vessel on October 4th. Peak sizing is well split between 8s, 9s, and 10s. External Blush and internal color are good and eating quality is good for a Tommy variety. For premium tasting fruit, Brazil is sending some Keitt mango to arrive starting next Friday October 4th. Supplies will be very limited so please try to book in advance on Keitts from Brazil. The Brazil air Ataulfo season ended last week with the last arrival. Ecuador is a week or two away from packing properly mature Ataulfo mango.

We can support ad volumes in all sizes from 7s through 12s starting with our arrival of October 4th. So please contact us for your mango promotional needs for loading weeks 41 through week 44. We expect supplies to become tight again in the transition from Brazil to Ecuador in weeks 45, 46, 47 due to the delay in flowering and the cool weather in Ecuador. See the far right side of the Arrival Volume Chart and notice how the “Total Round Mango Boxes all COO’s” bottoms out in those weeks by the projections we currently have from Brazil and Ecuador. We then expect a pronounced peak of arrivals in weeks 48, 49, and 50. Please plan post-Thanksgiving mango ads. We are going to need them.

Stores on ad on conventional mangos fell from 2,794 stores to 1,884 stores on ad for the week ending 9/19. Weighted average retail price rose to $1.24 per piece. Stores on organic mango ads fell from 156 last week to 100 stores this coming week with an average retail price rising to $3.02 each. See the USDA Data on Retail Mango Ads chart below for detailed data by geographic region of the country.