Mango and Lime Crop Update and Forecast - Week 40

Lime Update

The 21 day Mexican Lime Crossings Chart below shows a volatile supply volume going from 703 loads down to 480 loads and back up to 626 loads the last 7 days. There have been rains over the past week in the lime growing regions which is good news for the drought weakened trees and this will help strengthen the crop to come in December. Sizing is getting a little better with the peak moving from 230/250 to 200/230. Demand seams steady. We expect about 2 more weeks of 500 – 600 loads of lime crossing from Mexico per week before the dip in production that we have been talking about Mid-October through November really hits and where we expect the volumes to drop significantly lower. The market is wide ranging on price just like the quality ranges greatly by packer. With a weaker quality crop it pays to go with the shippers that really invest the time and expense into precooling the fruit very well after packing before loading it onto trucks. Limes that are properly stabilized after packing have a greatly increased shelf life and present fewer problems down the road. This is what we strive to do, to not give quality and condition headaches to customers.

The number of stores on ad on limes rose from 256 last week to 33 stores for the week ending 10/3 at an average retail price of $0.33 per unit. There were also 81 stores on ad by the pound at an average price of $0.78 per pound. There were zero stores on an organic lime ads according to the USDA specialty crop market news survey of more than 400 retailers.

Mango Crop Update

We are in week 40 now. Most packers in Northern Sinaloa, Mexico shut down last week but there will continue to be crossings and inventory of Jumbo Keitt mangos available for another couple of weeks. Brazil is now entering the peak arrival phase of their season which will be the entire month of October. The market was very undersupplied on sizes 8s, 9s, 10s, 12s for the past two weeks but with the last vessel we got some of these regular chain store size mangos into the pipeline and now we have the peak vessel of the season about to hit this Friday, so we will be stable with plenty of supplies the rest of the month. We can do volume ads on sizes 7s, 8s, 9s, 10s all of October. We need ads on size 6s/7s/8s as soon as possible. Size 12s have not been very prevalent so far running only 6.03% of our manifests as you can see in the Brazil Mango Size Breakdown Chart below.

We have a small volume of Palmer and Keitt mango from Brazil for those interested in a premium eating experience or differentiation from Tommy Atkins variety. Organic mangos are in a gap now between Mexico and Ecuador. Brazil does not export organic mango to the USA so the only organics available are California Keitts which are basically committed as we understand. Ecuador’s first organic Tommy should arrive week 44.

We have updated projections for Ecuador in the Arrival Volume Chart below. These new projection have an earlier ramp up than they projected last week which is good news as the supply forecast looks better for early November than our chart last week. Loading in week 47 looks to be the start of peak arrivals from Ecuador so we would like to run big promotions for loading weeks 47 – 52. Ataulfos have started arriving from Ecuador. Be careful as they might be immature. Our growers are starting to pick now so we should have the first mature Ataulfos arriving in week 42.

Stores on ad on conventional mangos rose from 1,884 stores to 3,464 stores on ad for the week ending 10/3. Weighted average retail price was $1.11 per piece. Stores on organic mango ads fell from 100 last week to 32 stores this week with an average retail price of $3.15 each. See the USDA Data on Retail Mango Ads chart below for detailed data by geographic region of the country.

Mango and Lime Crop Update and Forecast - Week 38/39

Lime Update

It has been raining steadily in Veracruz which is exactly what the lime trees need to start recovering from the drought. The flush of fruit we saw a couple of weeks ago seems to be dying down now with the 21 day look back showing volumes dropping from 769 loads to 626 loads to 493 loads the last 7 days with volume reported. The new flowering we are seeing now indicates supplies will be good again around December or January. Unfortunately the trees were so weakened by the summer drought that the flowering was extremely poor for production in mid-October and November. There will be extremely low volume of production during this time frame. Get ready for a crazy high market on limes.

The lime market is always volatile and ranges greatly with quality. Quality is poor in general but getting better. Overall crop size distribution is still very small (230s/250s). With commitments on larger limes, grower/packers and importers struggle to get the volume they need on the big sizes without getting overloaded on the small sizes. Try to use the smallest limes you can to find the best value.

The number of stores on ad on limes fell from an already low 355 last week to 256 stores for the week ending 9/16 at an average retail price of $0.61 per unit, nearly doubling in price. There were zero stores on an organic lime ads according to the USDA specialty crop market news survey of more than 400 retailers.

Mango Crop Update

We are starting week 39 today. Mexican volumes continued strong through week 38 averaging 48 loads per day for the last 7 days through the 19th. We expect the Mexican crossings to drop off very fast going forward as indicated in the Arrival Volume Chart below. Brazil will start a 5 week peak of arrivals with the vessel on October 4th. Peak sizing is well split between 8s, 9s, and 10s. External Blush and internal color are good and eating quality is good for a Tommy variety. For premium tasting fruit, Brazil is sending some Keitt mango to arrive starting next Friday October 4th. Supplies will be very limited so please try to book in advance on Keitts from Brazil. The Brazil air Ataulfo season ended last week with the last arrival. Ecuador is a week or two away from packing properly mature Ataulfo mango.

We can support ad volumes in all sizes from 7s through 12s starting with our arrival of October 4th. So please contact us for your mango promotional needs for loading weeks 41 through week 44. We expect supplies to become tight again in the transition from Brazil to Ecuador in weeks 45, 46, 47 due to the delay in flowering and the cool weather in Ecuador. See the far right side of the Arrival Volume Chart and notice how the “Total Round Mango Boxes all COO’s” bottoms out in those weeks by the projections we currently have from Brazil and Ecuador. We then expect a pronounced peak of arrivals in weeks 48, 49, and 50. Please plan post-Thanksgiving mango ads. We are going to need them.

Stores on ad on conventional mangos fell from 2,794 stores to 1,884 stores on ad for the week ending 9/19. Weighted average retail price rose to $1.24 per piece. Stores on organic mango ads fell from 156 last week to 100 stores this coming week with an average retail price rising to $3.02 each. See the USDA Data on Retail Mango Ads chart below for detailed data by geographic region of the country.

Mango and Lime Crop Update and Forecast - Week 37

Lime Update

With the rains over the past week, limes are maturing and yellowing quickly. This is causing a rush to pick them off the trees. The 21 day look back shows volume of 602 loads two weeks ago, growing to 698 loads and now 736 loads for the last 7 days reported. We expect this surge in volume to last for a couple of weeks and to be followed by a lack of volume in October and November due to the poor health of the trees following such a long drought prior to this weeks’ rain. The overall quality and condition of the crop is poor relative to what Mexico normally produces. Sizing is very concentrated on small sizes. You can expect shorter shelf life than normal and quickly yellowing fruit in general due to the weakened health of the drought stricken trees. The market is long on 230s and 250s and we are looking for quick promos to move through it in the next week or two.

The number of stores on ad on limes fell from 1,942 last week to 355 stores for the week ending 9/19 at an average retail price of $0.34 per unit. There were only 12 stores on an organic lime ads at $2.99 per pound according to the USDA specialty crop market news survey of more than 400 retailers.

Mango Crop Update

We are ending week 37 today. Volumes are still relatively strong out of Mexico as you can see in the Arrival Volume Chart below. Daily crossing have averaged around 56 loads per day the last 7 days reported so this is still near peak volume from Northern Sinaloa. This volume will start to fall next week and the HWT plants should all be closed in Southern Sinaloa. The Mexican Keitt sizing is enormous as shown in table below with 6s being the peak size, followed by 5s and then 4s. Eating quality is great but appearance is declining with heavy lenticel freckling and skin abrasions and sap burn being significant detractors on appearance. Demand is incredibly strong and there is very little excess fruit laying around without commitments already on it. Market is wide ranging from $5.00 to $7.00 generally.

Brazil is ramping up packing. We have very high confidence in the accuracy of our projections below for what Brazil will ship this season. The peak arrivals will be the vessels of weeks 40, 41, and 42. Although the Arrival Volume chart shows the Total Round volume available in the country being a million boxes less than where we are today, Amazon will have plenty of fruit to supply its customers due to the strength of our Brazil program, so please contact us about promoting red mangos through October with loading starting with the vessel of October 4th for promotions. Quality has been fantastic on early arrivals and we expect this to continue. Sizing has been large peaking on 9s, then 8s on the first vessels with very few 12s and no 14s but we expect this to shift to a more balanced distribution with 9s/10s being the peak as we get into the heart of the season. Please let us know if you are interested in Kent/Keitt/Palmer fibreless mangos from Brazil. We can bring some volume as long as we can compete on pricing to the grower with the Europe market.

One Ecuador grower has started picking Ataulfos, but our growers are warning us that this is very premature and that volume of properly mature round fruit will be very delayed this year. Flowering was weeks behind last year and the weather is still seeing cool nights which slows growth and maturity. See the Ecuador early season projection below. We don’t expect Ecuador to get going in volume on round mangos until right about Thanksgiving creating a high volume peak between Thanksgiving and Christmas. Please plan to take advantage of that volume in the week 48 to 52 time frame this year. Honey Mangos (Ataulfos) are earlier than the round varieties. You can see in the Arrival Volume Chart that we expect some decent supplies in late October so retailers can plan to reactivate that item code.

Stores on ad on conventional mangos fell from 4,411 stores to 2,794 stores on ad for the week ending 9/19. Weighted average retail price was $1.12 per piece. Stores on organic mango ads fell from 211 last week to 156 stores this coming week with an average retail price of $2.23 each. See the USDA Data on Retail Mango Ads chart below for detailed data by geographic region of the country.